The Union demands that the FDP and the Greens leave the traffic lights. A change of chancellor as a result of the tank debate – how likely is that now?

The traffic light government’s tank debacle is also a great temptation. It is so big that leading CDU politicians cannot resist it. And invite the FDP and the Greens to swap partners. What makes sense at first glance – the SPD is alone with Zöger-Chancellor Scholz – turns out to be a shot in the own knee at second glance.

The Union may be capable of opposition – it is not capable of governing. Because the Union has a big, unresolved M

Here are the Union’s problems in a nutshell:

First: No coalition change without a change of chancellor. Olaf Scholz’ popularity ratings are in the basement – but that also applies to Friedrich Merz. In the eyes of voters, Merz has not yet made it to the chancellor alternative – even though Scholz is clearly weak. There are several reasons for this, one of which is:

Second: Merz is impulsive and he can’t lie. When Merz talks about “social tourism”, he means it. And if the word was planned, Merz planned it. It’s the same with the “little pashas” who made Bambule on New Year’s Eve. The problem with this:

Third: Rhetoric does not reconcile, it divides. Merz is argumentative and he likes the provocation – that may be entertaining at times and a refreshment for the expectant conservative wing in the Union, but: Merz is thus providing fodder for the red-green-dominated social discourse. The Greens lived off it in the Bundestag for weeks – even after Merz apologized – they felt they accused him of “social tourism” every day of the session. Which resulted in:

Fourth: For the Green Merz, the most popular enemy image has now become. In the words of the Greens leader Ricarda Lang: “Friedrich Merz proves every day that he bears no government responsibility in these times of crisis.” Black-Green under a Chancellor Merz is about as likely as a return of Angela Merkel to the Chancellery. Speaking of:

Fifth: The ex-chancellor has become synonymous with the Union’s unresolved Putin appeasement policy in 16 years. Merkel may not recognize the mistakes that the SPD now ruefully admits. And while the Social Democrats, in a drastic programmatic “turnaround”, declare Russia a country from which one must protect oneself, Merkel, when she speaks out, draws attention to the fact that Russia will not disappear from the map. However, dealing with Merkel’s mistakes alone is not enough in the Union, because:

Sixth: The Union would like to know where it stands. Does she want to talk about integration deficits, like Merz or her top candidate in Berlin, Kai Wegner, or, like Daniel Günther, see immigration as “something positive”? Contrary to the social statistics, Schleswig-Holstein’s CDU prime minister even believes that refugees “can be exactly the skilled workers that we lack”. The Syrians, two-thirds of whom live in Hartz IV, weren’t. Anyway, Gunther:

Seventh: The Union’s K question is unresolved. Markus Söder said that the topic of candidacy for chancellor was over for him, which not only the “FAZ” took as an indication that it is not exactly for the CSU boss. However: Günther has already brought in the 40 plus X percent that Söder wants to get in Bavaria in the fall in the north. We come to the penultimate union problem:

Eighth: The upper black is not only a red rag for the Greens, but also for the Blue and Yellows. FDP leader Christian Lindner flatly denied Merz’s ability to govern. And the most important FDP state association, the one in North Rhine-Westphalia, promoted its former coalition partner to enemy status. A Jamaica coalition has thus become less likely than a punctual train. Especially since:

Ninth: The new defense minister should soon clear up the main reason for the Union’s desire to swap partners. For Boris Pistorius, Poland’s Leo request is something of a godsend. If the Poles lead, Germany need not lead. Ukraine gets their Leos in the end and Germany can hide from Russia behind the allies. If that happens, the debate will come to an abrupt end. Because, P.S.:

Tenth: Not even Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann wants to deliver the fighter jets to Ukraine that Andriy Melnyk is demanding from Germany. Secure Ukraine’s air sovereignty? The FDP defense politician: “I don’t see us at all.”