As NATO rehearses the use of nuclear weapons, Western secret agents are on the lookout for any sign of movement on Russia’s nuclear warheads.
On October 17, NATO launched a fortnightly nuclear weapons exercise dubbed Steadfast Noon in Belgium. NATO believes that later this month Russia will hold its own nuclear military exercises called Grom for the second time this year.
Steadfast Noon, involving 60 aircraft from 14 allies – is “a routine, recurring training activity” unrelated to the war in Ukraine. However, in this context it is anything but routine. Also, during a major European war, NATO will rehearse nuclear strikes. Some military experts fear that this could lead to a nuclear escalation.
The timing may seem worrying, but the risks are still small. However, the more Russian forces are being pushed back, the greater the danger that Russian President Vladimir Putin could use nuclear weapons, as he has threatened to do at times. According to President Joe Biden, the world faces the greatest threat of “Armageddon” since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962.
At the beginning of the war, the Americans postponed the test launch of a Minuteman III ICBM, fearing that it would be considered an escalation. Sentiment has since deteriorated, and the West sees fit to warn Russia of “catastrophic” consequences should it use nuclear weapons.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg says canceling Steadfast Noon would signal weakness. For Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists think tank, the situation is a “textbook example” of an escalation where both sides want to prove they are serious about deterrence, and not for fear of appearing weak allowed to give in.
If Putin is about to cross the nuclear threshold, will the world be warned? Probably, say Western news services. Judging by their prior knowledge of the Russian invasion, they seem to have a good grasp of the Kremlin’s decision-making process. As for satellites and other technical means, much would depend on what weapons they decide to use.
Russia and America’s arsenals of long-range “strategic” weapons are being closely monitored under the New Start Treaty, which limits the number of nuclear warheads on missiles, bombers and submarines to 1,550 each. The problem is that many of these weapons are kept on standby and can be fired without warning.
Satellites and ground-penetrating radars cannot detect and track ballistic missiles until they are launched, and low-flying cruise missiles would be harder to detect. These weapons are unlikely to be used, however, as they carry a much higher risk of provoking a war with NATO because they could be mistaken for an attack on the West. NATO will closely monitor the Grom exercise, which has tested submarine-launched ICBMs in the past.
A more realistic option would be a tactical nuclear strike, using one or more of Russia’s 2,000 “tactical” weapons, which generally have lower yields and shorter ranges. NATO has about a hundred such weapons stationed in Europe.
Russia’s tactical warheads are stored in dozens of storage facilities, separate from the aircraft and missiles needed to deploy them. Preparations for their use should therefore be ascertainable. It is crucial to detect movements of the warheads from the storage sites with the help of satellites and other means.
The warheads would be transported by freight trains or trucks, escorted by fire engines and special recovery vehicles, guarded by the elite units of the 12th Directorate responsible for their maintenance. Military units using these weapons could also show unusual activity. All of this would likely create a more intense electronic riot.
Western countries know the telltale signs, having worked with Russia for decades after the Cold War to improve the security of its nuclear arsenal under the Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) program. Some of Russia’s special equipment and procedures were developed with the help of Western experts.
William Moon, a veteran of the program, says a large movement of warheads would certainly be detected. However, for a limited tactical demonstration, Russia could try to hide a warhead or two in an ordinary truck. The discovery of such an action would be “pure luck,” he emphasizes.
Pavel Podvig of the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research, a Geneva-based think tank, explains that when tactical nuclear weapons are mounted on mobile missile launchers and hidden in forests, they are difficult to spot. However, he adds, “Russia will not know if it is not observed. It will never be certain.”
In any case, according to James Acton of the Carnegie Endowment, another think tank, concealing the movement of the warheads would run counter to Russia’s goals. “Putin would want us to know that he is preparing to use nuclear weapons. He would rather threaten to use nuclear weapons and force concessions than actually use them.”
The article first appeared in The Economist under the title “How to detect an imminent Russian nuclear attack” and was translated by Andrea Schleipen.
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How the West Recognizes an Imminent Russian Nuclear Attack is from The Economist.
