the Specificity of oil production in Russia is that, unlike the Gulf countries or the United States, you can’t just stop production, ceasing to pump oil. This can lead to damage of stocks, to the extent that in the future on the field stopped to extract oil did not succeed.
the Two main features of the new Covenant OPEC+ volumes of production cuts and a record period within which they must be achieved. The first is almost clear, we need to reduce production by July of this year to 8.5 million barrels per day. Given that according to statistics CDU TEK, average daily oil production in Russia in April amounted to 11,35 million barrels, to reduce production our country will have to 2.85 million barrels per day.
to Remove the volume needed for may and June is the second feature of the new deal. You may recall that earlier reduction of 300 thousand barrels per day, Russia was 3 months, and achieved this figure just in time for the end of this term. Now, due to the critical situation in the oil market to achieve maximum reductions need in no time. According to CDU TEK, which leads TASS, Russia for the first week of may has managed to reduce the production of 1.9 million barrels per day.
According to the Director for exploration and production of oil and gas VYGON Consulting Sergey Klubkova, since the decision on proportional for all companies reduce production (including joint ventures PSA), the reduction will affect all oil regions of the country. “First and foremost, it will fall under the fields with hard to recover reserves (TRIZ) as the least margin” – the expert believes.
If during the period of validity of the last transaction OPEC+ Russia failed to achieve the required performance is largely due to the deceleration, but not stay of proceedings – delay of launching of new projects, the natural production decline in old fields and the exclusion from the quotas of gas condensate, now these tips will not help. From the point of view of Sergei Klubkova, in 2020 the reduction will be achieved primarily through conservation of existing wells.
the Company did not disclose information about where they will stop production, but with high probability we can assume that they will try to avoid the damage of the stocks and will decommission the wells, which can then safely run, even if they are now the most cost-effective.
However, there is another opinion. The head of the national energy security Fund Konstantin Simonov believes that the current low oil prices, the company will try to maintain production in the fields that fall under various tax incentives and production cuts will be made by algotirhms oil. This will reduce Finance��high losses due to low oil prices, and as a result of the forced reduction of production.
In the future, are likely to be revised programme of new wells and geological and technical measures to reduce the negative impact of production cuts on the industry. According to Sergey Klubkova, companies will have a difficult job to prioritize the current and project wells – borehole-by-borehole performance assessment. The expert noted that not all implemented this approach in their practice and are guided by the expert opinion of geologists and developers, and this can lead to serious errors and considerable losses in the well stock.
our main competitors – Saudi Arabia and the United States – such large-scale problems. The oil Kingdom may technically relatively painless to stop the production of “adult” fields. And, of course, natural causes of flooding to these areas of thunderstorms will not be as, for example, fields in Western Siberia. Shale oil US production which requires continuous drilling, the situation is even simpler. Just enough not to put into operation new wells and the production itself will fall. Since the beginning of this year the number of active drilling rigs in the US, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes, fell from 677 to 292 units. The last time this number was recorded in late 2009, that is only on the threshold of the shale revolution.