The first features of the stabilization in global financial markets noted in July 2020: the falling dollar and reduced risks have led to the resumption of capital flows to emerging markets, and, based on the logic of the June “Overview of risks of financial markets”, Bank of Russia, it can be a medium-term trend. But in July, Russia as one of these markets foreign investors by coincidence, almost not interested in — perhaps just yet.A review of the Bank of Russia gives the opinion of analysts of the Central Bank as on the characteristics of the transition the Russian and world financial markets between June situation in which the impact of the crisis factors associated with coronavirus pandemic, it was still predominant, and by July 2020, the first month in which for most markets was more or less confident to speak about post-crisis perspectives. A formal review of the Central Bank devoted to the short-term the current risks of the Russian financial system. Thus, a separate Chapter in it describes the observations of the analysts of the controller for fast-growing (due to the relative stability finrynka of the Russian Federation this trend in the spring and summer 2020, almost no change) of the repo market. In particular, the Bank of Russia is discussing the underestimation of the related and intra-group transactions the actual concentration of risks in repo transactions (not reflected right standards h6 and H25), as well as the risks in such transactions is a positive correlation of credit risk and collateral value. CB said that in some cases already provides market participants with guidelines for “self-restraint” of those risks.However, conventionally the “international” part of the review of the Central Bank, apparently, is more important. The Bank of Russia de facto links the large-scale stimulus measures taken by the fed, the ECB, other regulators, with the lengthening of the forecast recovery of the world GDP and recorded July inflows of capital to developing countries Finance (in the review of the Bank of Russia probably first used pretty good the term “emerging markets”) is an inflow for the first time since March. The Central Bank also noted a sharp weakening of the US dollar on the horizon two years and increased demand for defensive assets (primarily gold). Longer term the weak dollar in the review are discussed, however, in the future two to three years is a relatively weak dollar, and it discusses most analysts of the world— is close to reality, due to including the domestic political tensions in the United States, the huge size of the incentive “packages” (the EU’s ability to act in the same way physically smaller), in a review of the Central Bank very carefully discusses the reduction by Fitch of the Outlook on the sovereign rating of the United States (it remains at the highest level — Aaa; from rating agencies only S&P, notice analysts, reduced the USA’s rating from AAA to A+ in 2012, but the scale of the crisis��and 2020 look great than in 2007-2009).Comparative table of the Central Bank on the dynamics of indicators of emerging markets explains why in July 2020, the influx of international capital, Russia is not touched. With a relatively quick improvement in most indicators, Russia in June was according to these indicators, the worst among the 17 largest emerging markets (now fourth from the bottom, best from this point of view looks to be Brazil, followed by Malaysia, Chile and China): in the Russian Federation “coronavirus” the crisis is a revenue crisis because of falling oil prices. In a major new borrowing, the Ministry of Finance summer 2020 the share of non-residents, according to statistics of the Central Bank fell. However, in July 2020, the outflow of non-residents on the Russian stock market ceased, the corporate bond market is recovering.The General logic of the forecast of the Central Bank in this regard suggests that on the horizon two or three years, the chances of the Russian Federation to take advantage of the effects of the global recovery is high enough to ignore them. The Bank of Russia confirms that the crisis of the spring of 2020, and lower yields on deposits became the trigger for the growth of interest in financial instruments (and, apparently, in the future allows you to increase the “depth” of the market of the Russian Federation, is primarily concerned with individuals). The Russian credit market is recovering very fast: loans to legal entities without foreign currency revaluation in July rose by 1.3% (contribution to the growth of debt of state-sponsored anti-crisis programs of crediting is not so great — in the period from April 1 to August 1, 2020 total corporate loan portfolio grew by 3.8%, of which 0.7 p. p.— loans under state programs), loans to natural persons in July increased by 1.7%. The quality of loans to individuals, says the Central Bank have stabilized, for legal entities of systemically significant banks restructured at the end of July, 12% of loan portfolio (figures are not SMEs in this sector at the beginning of August restructured 14% of loans), but mostly, says the Bank of Russia is not forced to restructure, and the result of the reduction of the key rate.In General, especially when the stability of oil prices, this painting is described in a Central Bank context is ceteris paribus sufficient and attractive to both internal and external investors. Weak global recovery in this case may contribute to slightly faster Russian (also see “Kommersant” on August 4).Dmitry Butrin
