According to their estimates, merchandise imports in the third quarter will be $ 12 billion (or 25%) higher than in the second quarter, significantly more than the volume of currency sold by the Bank of Russia. Also, many companies continue to pay dividends, including deferred during the period of quarantine (according to the analysts of Raiffeisenbank, total payments to non-residents in the third quarter will be $ 14 billion, which is 36% less year-on-year and only 12% lower quarter-on-quarter).
Based on current oil prices ($43 per barrel Brent) and exchange rate, the balance of the current account in the third quarter will again be close to zero (against 10.5 billion in the third quarter last year) due to a fall in physical volumes of export of oil and gas – it eliminates a large part of the growth of prices for hydrocarbons.
This situation creates the preconditions for the weakening of the ruble, says the review. Currency sales by the Bank of Russia will not be able to compensate for the outflow of capital from the private sector, while the inflow of foreign investment in OFZ close to zero.
For these reasons, if the current price of oil/gas (and exports) is expected to further weakening of the ruble (in the region of 75 rubles to the dollar), predict analysts “Raiffeisenbank”. In addition, can be realized “tail” risks in the form of falling consumption of hydrocarbons due to the second wave COVID-19, they added.
the First half of August could be positive for the ruble on the background of a tangible weakening in late July, said in a research report of the Bank “Saint-Petersburg”. But later fundamental factors, namely the seasonal reduction of foreign exchange inflows on the current account of the balance of payments and reducing operations of the Ministry of Finance in the foreign exchange market (up to 80-90 billion rubles) will start to push the rate to 75 rubles per dollar and above, is projected in the review. However, this week amid the positive for risk assets, which include the ruble, most likely, you will see a short-term recovery of prices, however, they will hardly be able to overcome the levels of 72 rubles per dollar, according to analysts of the Bank.