The expert evaluated the data of Rosstat on income of Russians coronavirus not guilty

For the first quarter of 2020 the population of our country, impoverished by 0.2%, but if you compare it with the I quarter of 2019. But if we compare current earnings with the earnings obtained by the Russians at the end of last year, they decreased by 25%. About such disappointing data signals Rosstat, noting that in the early months of 2020, the real incomes of residents of the state was hardly more than 31 thousand rubles. It should be noted that starting from the second quarter of 2019, real income of ordinary citizens of our country have steadily risen.

This gave domestic officials reason to be optimistic about a further increase in workers ‘ welfare. However, faced with the epidemic of the coronavirus, which came from China, the Russian government has put a hand. Experts believe that global economic troubles for a long time crippled the feet of the financial system of our country, and incomes in the coming months will drop 20-30%.

According to specialists of Rosstat, the data show that the coronavirus pandemic has not affected the income of our population. However, the dynamics of lowering the welfare of Russians have turned negative, although still insignificant. Real disposable income of citizens of Russia last fall a year ago in the first quarter of 2019 — 1.6%. Then the figure showed growth for three consecutive quarters: in the second quarter of incomes of Russians grew by 1% in the third quarter by nearly 3% in the IV quarter by 1.8%.

Now the situation is repeated. For the first two months of year growth of consumer prices has almost reached the level of 2.5%. Food products, in particular, rose by 1.9% and non — food- by 2.4%. Cost of services increased in price by almost 3%.

According to doctor of Economics Igor Nikolayev, on the one hand, it is possible to note that towards the end of last year real incomes of Russians fell by almost a quarter. However, to blame the fashion industry, it is hardly necessary — at the end of the year, most companies pay their employees cash bonuses bonuses and other expenses, therefore, to compare salaries at the end and beginning of the year would not be fair.

“however, the real incomes of the population, not taking into account one-time bonuses, steadily decreased in 2018 0.1%, in 2019 — by 0.8%. The situation has not changed. Statistical data was able to redirect in a positive direction by changing the methodology of calculation of incomes of Russians. Now they are counting on a quarterly basis, whereas previously the statistics gathered at the end of each month. Such tricks allow you to vary the data that allows officials to claim economic progress, although no progress in the overstatement of financial condition ��Tran they do not commit” — said the expert.

According to Nikolaev, from April to the end of the year, the fall in real incomes can exceed 10%. “When you get to the end of the funds of the national welfare Fund, and this can happen in two years, then Russia will collapse the economic crisis with which our country had never experienced,” — says the interlocutor of “MK”.

the Russian economy will not save perhaps even more costly oil — prices are unlikely to rise above $30. Too sharp a drop in demand for “black gold” will not be able to be offset against the possible one-time purchases of individual countries.

“the Current crisis is significantly different from the previous one. In past years, even in unfavorable economic conditions, people were able to increase their economic well-being. Now revenues are falling, and the economy continues to stagnate, which does not allow the population to move forward. The crisis in the domestic financial sector, as well as for the population, will be delayed for 2021-2022 years”, — said Nikolayev.

“We don’t know how many Russians have stopped working due to the onset of quarantine. Some industry was almost unaffected, others have lost their jobs most of the employees. In the second quarter, we will likely see a drop in real incomes in double-digit terms — 10%. A third of workers do not work full time. The exit from the crisis will be found, when Russia will find an effective way of dealing with the coronavirus. In addition, you must wait for the moment when appropriated funds of the state will reach the recipient — including midsize and small businesses. Recovery in real incomes is not expected until the beginning of 2021,” — says the chief economist of rating Agency “Expert RA” Anton tabah.