the Ruble has responded positively to the message of the Russian Finance Ministry’s currency purchases in the budgetary rules in may, though the result were in line with market expectations, said the head of the Department of global studies “Opening Broker” Mikhail Shulgin. Office from 13 may to 4 June, will sell the currency to 193.1 billion rubles, the daily sales will amount to 11.4 billion rubles. From 7 April to 12 may, the sales volume was equivalent to 77.8 billion rubles, which corresponds to the daily sales of $ 3.5 billion.
the Main competitors of the ruble in the segment emerging markets are the Mexican peso, South African Rand, Brazilian real and Turkish Lira, says Shulgin. The differences imputed to the one-month volatility of the rates of these currencies against the dollar has narrowed to 7 percentage points to 25.5% in Brazilian real (high group) and 18.1% in ruble (at least in groups), notes the analyst.
However, it is highly likely that the commodity currencies in the short term, have potential for growth with the support of positive dynamics of prices for oil and metals, says Shulgin. “We structurally look at a long position in the Brazilian real against the Turkish Lira and a long position in the ruble against the Turkish currency. Expect that Russia has the advantage of being faster than other countries can regain the attractiveness of the carry trade due to a more rapid rate of decline in imputed volatility,” he says.
At the same time, in the case of reduction of volume of currency sales next week in the ruble may return moderate volatility, admits chief analyst “BCS Premier” Anton Pokatovich. In his opinion, the ruble Monday will be formed in the range of 72.7-75 rubles to the dollar.
