Alone, by the continuing loss of production in March and the coming April it will be missing in the worldwide market of around 1.6 million vehicles. “It is still too early to name concrete Figures on the impact of the pandemic on the auto industry. But I’m going to assume that we can see so far, only a fraction of the dislocations. Not least because in the medium term, the behavior of the consumer is changing,” says Andreas Radics, managing Partner at Berylls Strategy Advisors, “even if the production can start up again, it is unclear how quickly the purchase of normalized behavior.”
a Lot of manufacturer place of manufacturing to April, from
just yesterday, giants such as Volkswagen or Fiat Chrysler Automobiles announced that they are to suspend their production longer than previously planned in April. Berylls Strategy Advisors Estimated loss of production of the car manufacturer by the Corona-crisis
The reasons for this are the same as at the Start of nearly two weeks. For one, it comes to the health of the workers in production; on the other the required component is missing increasingly urgent, because the suppliers have suspended production or the logistics chain by ship, truck, train, or LWW are interrupted. Here, the Auto-Newsletter
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Good news: China is returning to normal slowly
“The good news is that manufacturing in China is virtually run anywhere and the customer go back to the dealers to buy cars,” admits Andreas Radics, “individual brands report that they have already reached 70 to 80 percent of the expected volume. In the absence of a Covid-19-comes to the outbreak, this is a very positive Signal from this important market.“ Geely car manufacturer Geely are employees working on elevated body temperature checked
Therefore, teams of the car manufacturer to run even with the Crisis in Europe, Asia and the USA, long been a wide variety of plans, when you can increase in the numerous works in the production. Corporate and politics are in agreement that this needs to be as fast as possible, because the economic consequences of cost day-to-day hundreds of millions of euros. VW-in-chief Herbert Diess said recently in a television Interview that Volkswagen will lose around two billion euros in liquidity – and every week.
in Europe, production must go down.
It is not only the extension of already initiated short-time work, but also to terminations and bankruptcies, which can not be prevented which is always kind of rescue long-term threatens. Tesla at half the price: the China-SUV in front of the BMW Headquarters FOCUS Online Tesla for half the price: the China-SUV in front of the BMW Headquarters
The analysts of IHS Automotive anticipate that the global market could decline this year by around ten million vehicles, if the crisis lasts longer. That would be a decline compared to the previous year by twelve percent. This decrease is due to the outbreak of the Covid-19 Virus would be significantly more painful than the economic crisis with a corresponding recession in the years 2008 / 2009, when there was a decline of eight percent.
Much larger decline than during the financial crisis,
, According to the calculations of IHS, it is likely to give after the Collapse of production and demand, only a slow recovery. Identical IHS and Beryl indicate, however, that much depends on whether China or other regions have the Problem of the Corona-Virus sustainable in the handle, or it could be new foci of infection. Beryl Beryl-Analyst Andreas Radics
For the Chinese market, IHS expects that this year, 22.4 million vehicles to be produced; that would be 2.3 million units, or ten percent less than in 2019. In Europe, the currently calculated reduction should be at 13.6 percent, which would mean a volume of 15.6 million vehicles. Despite a Two-billion rescue program for the US economy, the sustainable recession seems to be also sealed. Display:
IHS forecast in 2020, sales of 14,46 million U.S. vehicles, representing a decrease by at least 15.3 percent compared to the previous year. The 2.4 million fewer vehicles would be as formerly planned. Beryl-Analyst Andreas Radics: “in 2020, I don’t see yet as a lost year, expect a sales decline of slightly more than ten percent compared to the year 2019. Provided the crisis is weakening within the next three months in Europe and the United States, and the Virus remains in China under control.“
even before Corona, the industry was in a difficult Phase
is it determined that only the companies that move quickly to develop a revised strategy for production, commercial and model portfolio, and thus flexibly to the crisis, can get away with manageable injuries. Not easier to makes the Whole that manufacturers and their suppliers have been prior to the outbreak of the pandemic in a difficult Phase and the investments for alternative powertrains and Autonomous Driving into the billions. No doubt is likely, however, that some of the smaller suppliers are likely to be pushed to the edge of the subsistence minimum, and even car manufacturers could wobble.
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