Only one currency succumbed to the pandemic and cheap oil

Especially for “the Russian newspaper” Anna Bodrov, a senior analyst at IAC “Alpari”, analyzed the situation. And given the forecast for the first decade of may, and called the counter currency against the coronavirus.

Intervention in the domestic market of Russia continue unabated, and we have to admit, – says the expert, – that without these daily injections, the dollar would have long ago crossed above 80 rubles.

In April, the ruble was extremely sensitive to changes in sentiment in the oil market. Still, it was hard to ignore: a barrel of WTI fell to negative levels, investors are nervous, the domestic Central Bank kept silent and held on to inflation. Now oil is again under pressure.

And for sales traders, there is a reason – the probability of “overflow” storage capacity, once the tankers off the coast of the United States can not unload. A barrel of Brent at 19,50 dollar, WTI – at 12, 70 dollar is quite a negative for the ruble. However, in the Russian market, apparently, are convinced that all the worst has already happened.

In may the market has a lot of expectations. First of all, the gradual lifting of restrictive measures within the regime of self-isolation. A smooth exit from the conditional quarantine is a positive for the economy and its currency.

Also in may, the member countries of OPEC will reduce raw material extraction. And it must balance the oil offer even due to low demand. If to remove from the market at least a small excess supply, prices will move in the direction of neutrality. For barrel Brentсейчас it would be great to gain a foothold within 20-25 dollars and not twitch in any of the parties. Russian Urals crude in the case of stabilizing the global market may consolidate in the range of 15-20 dollars and stay here for some time.

People will be released from quarantine, will more actively spend and you will see that inflation rises. This will happen due to a pending price rise of imported goods, and on the background of the problems retailers. Inflationary pressure is not immediately, but later on will definitely put pressure on the ruble.

Short-term – up to 1 may, for example, the dollar is unlikely to be very active in tandem with the ruble will remain in the range of 73 to 76 rubles. May 9 – 73-77 rubles.

If you look at some of the traded currencies most affected by the coronavirus and its implications, the observation will be amazing.

the Impact of the pandemic and the fall in oil prices tremendously affected global currencies. Since the beginning of the year, the ruble has weakened against the U.S. dollar by 20 percent to date, the Kazakhstan tenge, which is 13 percent, and the yuan – 1.7 per cent (where the rate control, the people’s Bank, but still), Argentine peso by 12 percent. Currencies of developed economies of the world very visibly lost its value.

More or less not changed their positions to the American currency, perhaps, only the Japanese yen, which is bll recognized as a defense asset. And the image she retained, in spite of the pandemic and the fall of oil prices.