The loss of the infrastructure sector of the Russian Federation due to coronavirus and quarantine measures by the end of may will amount to 818 billion rubles., estimated by analysts InfraOne Research. Of this amount, the lion’s share is in transportation, lost 519 billion rubles, suffered most aircraft. This loss of energy was below expectations, and foreign examples, and Telekom will receive from the isolation of additional 66 billion rubles of the Russian infrastructure sector since the introduction of epidemiological restrictions and may 31 will lose their right to 818 billion rubles, or 13% of annual revenue, the report InfraOne Research. The most affected sector, analysts say, will be the transport infrastructure of its loss before the summer will reach 519 billion rubles. Of which 62% is for air transport to 271 billion rubles. estimated losses of airlines and 51 billion rubles. loss of revenue from airports. In the previous forecast until the end of April in InfraOne estimated loss of aircraft to 134 billion rubles (RUB 112.6 billion and 21.2 billion rubles, respectively), and the share of this sector in the total loss of transport was lower at 58%.In late April, consulting company Bain estimated the total loss of revenue of airlines of the Russian Federation in 2020 from the restrictions imposed in 550 roubles. the Source “b” familiar with the method of calculation, says that Bain was expecting a loss since the introduction of restrictions until the end of may to 170 billion rubles, which is more optimistic than calculations InfraOne. “Bain laid a drop in traffic on domestic routes in April at 70%, in fact had decreased by 80-90%. In addition, in their calculations they took into account only the regular service,” he explains. Given the fall in traffic on domestic routes in April, more than 90% loss of revenue until 31 may can be 240-270 billion roubles, says the source “b”.Loss of railway transport will amount to 66 billion rubles, predicts InfraOne: they will exceed the loss of the city both overground and underground transport (55 billion rubles). The head of Russian Railways Oleg Belozerov may 7, estimated the loss of Federal passenger company (FPC, is responsible for the message long-distance) before the end of the year to 100 billion rubles Since the beginning of March, the company returned tickets 8 billion. According to estimates of Institute of natural monopolies, for March—April only in the freight segment of Railways have lost more than 36 billion rubles In April, the revenue of Russian Railways decreased by 9 billion rubles, operators of 14 billion rubles. In this case, said Deputy General Director Institute of natural monopolies Vladimir Savchuk, loss in the cargo segment can not be attributed exclusively to the coronavirus — cause in the decline of loading, and the surplus rolling stock, and other factors. According to him, the loss in may in this segment could reach 20 billion rubles. however, the Iput calculations do not include passenger segment, the loss of which — is entirely the result of the coronavirus.In urban passenger transport in shirokoi interpretation, which is estimated at InfraOne, lose 126 billion RUB, the most affected segment will be a taxi — it will have 54% of the losses of the segment, or 69 billion rubles In may to affected industries joined the river passenger transport left without navigation: estimated InfraOne, his loss this month will amount to 3.1 billion rubles. While in the cargo segment loss of water transport will not be associated with a coronavirus — most from the outflow of goods to other modes of transport.Social infrastructure will lose 205 billion rubles, leading medical facilities (56.8 billion rubles.). InfraOne believes that the situation in the social infrastructure is much more serious than in the air, since “the reduction in the monthly revenue from a number of companies reaches almost 100%,” and even with the easing of restrictions access to educational, sporting, cultural and recreational infrastructure, “in all probability, will open in the last turn and not before June-July.” At the same time non-emergency medical services (e.g. dentistry) perhaps a slight increase in revenue in the second half of may, as the objects may soon start to open.In municipal infrastructure the volume of lost revenues will amount to 57 billion rubles, the main losses — the water and sanitation sector and waste management. In heating the situation is stable. However, analysts warn, the real loss of utility industry can be significantly higher because of rising defaults due to a deterioration of the economic situation of consumers and of moratorium on the imposition of penalties for non-payment of accounts to the end of the year.This loss of power was below expectations and less than in other countries, said InfraOne. So, if in Germany and Italy the fall in energy consumption in April was 10% and 25%, respectively, in Russia, by data “the System operator”— only 2.9%. Loss sector will amount to 37 billion rubles., estimates the InfraOne. There are areas which have benefited from the pandemic. First of all it telecommunications and IT, which will add an average of 20-25% to monthly revenue and they earn by the end of may for more 66,3 billion. the Bulk of the earnings will have on mobile communications (48.1 billion roubles) and broadband Internet access (11.5 billion rubles).Natalia Skorlygina, Herman Kostryns’ka
Infrastructure minus the virus Loss sector for two months will exceed 800 billion rubles.
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