this is stated in the research conducted by the analytical service of the international auditing and consulting network FinExpertiza (has “RG”).
Calculations were done on the total amounts of loans in rubles and foreign currency. It turned out that in April the Russians were given almost 1.9 times fewer loans compared with March. About 755 billion. Less was only in January 2018. Then the banks lent a population of 740 billion.
In may, the dynamics are unlikely to radically change, experts predict that “RG” introduced with this study. Until the habitual rhythm of economic in the country, people will not rush into loans, according to FinExpertiza.
No wonder that the Finance Ministry for ten years implementing the project “enhancing financial literacy and developing financial education in Russia”. Knowledge of financial risk and ability to plan cash transactions for the future, help many missed credits without looking back. However, played a role and other circumstances.
“in General, the dynamics of lending is seasonal, remind analysts. – As a rule, from the beginning to the end of the year with every month the volume of loans increases, reaching the highest point in December. Then shows a decline in January of the following year. The fall seen in April 2020, clearly violated the well-established cycle.” Played a role, and vacation credit, as well as understanding that after finishing them you still have to pay.
so, if you evaluate all these movements of money in percent to the previous month, then the lending fell to an average of 46 percent. It subsided in Chechnya (minus 67.3 percent), the Astrakhan region (minus 54,2), Krasnodar region (minus 53,4), Ingushetia (minus 53,3), Moscow region (minus 53,2), Kalmykia (minimum 53%).
followed by four more regions with a drop in lending by more than 52 percent: Adygea, Sevastopol, Komi, and Bryansk oblast. Least lending dipped in Chukotka, only 16.8%. The remaining 25 percent and more.
In General the situation is. Less than 1.5 times lending fell only in four regions. From 1.5 to two – in 58 regions. Twice or more – in 22 regions. And only in Chechnya, three times. However, here the “total amount of the issuance was always low – region is among the ten least-indebted”, analysts underline.
Yelena Trubnikov, President of the network FinExpertiza:
– on the one hand, banks are tightening requirements for borrowers. And more carefully analyze their financial situation, reducing the issuance of new consumer loans and credit card limits.
on the other hand, in a situation of uncertainty and falling incomes, consumers themselves less actively take out loans for fear to incur new debt.
as the deterioration of solvency of the population the share of problem loans and arrears will continue to grow. The situation is especially likely to deteriorate beginning in the fall, when they approach the end of vacation credit. Since interest will continue to accrue, albeit at a reduced rate. And total debt increases as the borrower’s income may never recover. It threatens the growth of debt load citizens and an even greater decline in income.
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