Rumors have been circulating about Vladimir Putin’s health. Putsch scenarios are also being discussed due to the sluggish progress of the Russian offensive in Ukraine. But who would succeed Putin if he were really no longer at the head of the Kremlin?
Putin will die. But we don’t know when. Rumors have been circulating for many years that he is suffering from an incurable disease. This is also the case now, when many would see his death as just punishment for the war of aggression against Ukraine.
Russian constitutional law sets clear rules in the event of the death or permanent incapacity of the president. In this case, powers pass to the head of the government – currently Mikhail Mišustin. New presidential elections must be held within three months. Incidentally, the same rules also apply to the resignation or impeachment of the Russian President.
Mišustin would almost certainly not be elected as Putin’s successor. He is an able technocrat, but without political power. Who then could take Putin’s place?
There are countless rumors and speculations in Russia about Putin’s successor. Sergei Sobyanin, the mayor of Moscow who has been in office since 2010, is brought into play; he is six years younger than Putin, so not a representative of a new generation. It is also doubtful that he would find much support outside of Moscow. Moscow, spoiled by prosperity, is hated in many parts of the country.
Another possible successor is Defense Minister Sergej Sojgu, formerly popular as Minister of Civil Protection. He is also only two and a half years younger than Putin. However, his prospects could be shattered by a defeat in the war in Ukraine. His father is also Tuvan, not ethnic Russian.
The governor of Tula, Aleksej Dyumin, would also have an outsider chance. He was long responsible for the personal protection of Putin. He is a lieutenant general and played a leading role in the 2014 occupation of Crimea as commander of the special forces of the Russian army and deputy director of the military intelligence service GRU. This helped him get his appointment as deputy secretary of defense. However, his move to regional politics in 2016 cannot be described as relegation; it could be waiting position for higher duties.
But it is not certain that Putin will die a natural death. A revolt from the military and security apparatus, the so-called siloviki, could remove him from office or even liquidate him. In such a scenario, the constitutional rules on succession would arguably not apply. The sheer power of violence would determine the course of events.
Gerhard Mangott is a professor of political science with a special focus on international relations and security in the post-Soviet space. He teaches at the Institute for Political Science in Innsbruck and is a lecturer at the Diplomatic Academy in Vienna
Nikolai Patrušev, who has been secretary of the Security Council since 2008, could then take over power. Previously, he was director of the FSB’s domestic intelligence agency, succeeding Putin in that post. Patrušev is a hawk, authoritarian and anti-Western. In the fall of 2021, he called Ukrainians “non-humans.” He could take the lead in a revolt and be crowned president in ‘elections’. However, he is even a few months older than Putin and would probably only be a transitional figure.
It cannot be ruled out, but it is unlikely that Putin’s successor will be able to settle accounts with him and his legacy. For the defeat caused by Putin in the war against Ukraine and the associated devastating effects of the West’s economic and financial sanctions against Russia. The successor could therefore strive for an opening to the West. Possible, but unlikely in the foreseeable future.
Could a liberal politician succeed Putin? That is almost impossible. The most charismatic liberal opposition politician is Aleksey Navalny. But he is imprisoned until 2032. Navalnij is also a politician who polarizes the population in Russia. But there is no other person besides him who could successfully aspire to the presidency.
While Putin’s resignation would remove an aggressive, authoritarian, and distrustful president, we can by no means be certain that a compatible successor will take power.
In Putin’s head: the logic and arbitrariness of an autocrat
