The volume of global wheat exports from Russia in the 2020-2021 agricultural year (which started July 1) is set to approach the historical record level of the 2017-2018 crop year, a report by the Sovekon research center has said.

Its experts have raised their projection of Russian wheat supplies by one million tons (2.5 percent), to 40.8 million tons. “The new wheat export forecast is slightly below the all-time high of 40.9 million tons reached in the 2017-2018 agricultural year,” said the report.

Estimated supplies of barley and corn have been lowered to 4.9 million tons and 3.9 million tons respectively. The country’s total export volume of grain, legumes, and products of their processing is estimated at 51.2 million tons, 0.4 million tons (0.8 percent) higher than the previous forecast.

The prediction was made considering the export quotas for a number of grain crops from Russia since February. It did not take into account the possible introduction of a non-zero export duty on grain, said Sovekon. “If the quota is replaced by an export duty, we are likely to see less wheat exports, a potential revision can be roughly estimated at several million tons,” it explained.

Russia’s booming agricultural production has surged by 20 percent over the last six years. The country has managed to capture more than half of the global wheat market in recent years, becoming the world’s biggest exporter of grain, thanks to bumper harvests and attractive pricing. Since the early 2000s, Russia’s share of the global wheat market has quadrupled. In 2018-2019, Russia delivered 35.2 million tons of wheat to the global market.

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