Over the last two months, the Russian currency fell by almost 9 rubles to the dollar – from 66 to 75 rubles for “green”. The ruble was in a fever along with oil and financial markets. Speculators added fuel to the fire: during the day, the ruble could lose a few positions, and then slowly to reconduct. Trading on the Russian stock exchange halted during the may holidays. We surveyed experts predicted that will happen to the ruble after the weekend.
In mid-March, the Russian currency is recognized as the second volatility in the world after the Mexican peso. This means that the ruble is thrown from side to side under the influence of several factors. The last couple of years the government tried to convince us that the ruble is no longer dependent on oil prices. The termination of the transaction OPEC+ in February and the collapse in oil prices has shown that it is not.
– the ruble is now depends on two factors – the cost of oil and sale of foreign currency by the Central Bank. These factors lead the ruble to a sufficiently high volatility. On the one hand, the price of oil greatly fluctuates, and with another – the regulator sells currency portions, which also makes the dynamics nonlinear, says the Creator of the club venture investors ITLEADERS and consulting company KLOPENKO GROUP Egor Globenko, After the may holidays, the exchange rate will also depend on oil. If “black gold” in may, will be strengthened, we will see the strengthening of the ruble. But if the oil is not going to be able to consolidate its growth, the ruble will be under pressure. In the second case it will be in the range of 75-80 rubles per dollar.
meanwhile, downward pressure on the ruble soften the monetary actions of the Central Bank, said the head of analytical Department AMarkets Artem Deev. Daily, the Central Bank sold the currency, so as not to create a shortage of dollars.
– All the oil will be the determining factor. In the case of negative news from the oil market after the may holidays, the exchange rate may weaken to the range 88-90 rubles per dollar. In positive news, the ruble will remain in the range 73-76 with the us currency, – told the expert.