Comes may, and the “y” offers its economic forecast for month. The experts answer the questions, what will happen to the dollar / ruble exchange rate as changes in world oil prices, which is inflation and how will the dollar and the Euro on the world currency market.1. What will be the rate of the ruble to the dollar?2. What is inflation?3. What will be the price of oil?4. What will be the Euro-dollar exchange rate?Tatiana Abankina, Director of the Center for the public sector, HSE:Photo: From personal архива1. I hope a significant weakening of the ruble in may will not happen, although no reasons and sources for the strengthening of the ruble is also not visible, but still allow reserves to compensate for future currency depreciation. So, I think that the dollar exchange rate of 70 rubles for may should be maintained.2. To curb inflation will fail. For a month it is hard to predict what it will be, but 1-1,5% to the total, of course, will add. And it is unlikely the government has any resources to curb inflation will remain for now since it solves the most serious problems in compensation physicians and backbone enterprises, so that they do not imploded.3. With heavy oil the situation objectively, because demand has fallen sharply almost everywhere, and to move from one territorial market to another is quite difficult. Besides reserves accumulated enough and the decline will continue, here will not save the situation with a decline in production. I don’t think the price will rise above $20 per barrel, we hope to be able to maintain prices at least at this level.4. The Euro will remain at the April level. Governments behave very carefully so as not to worsen the situation not only for themselves but also for others, so that the level ratio of Euro and dollar will be at the level of 1.08 to 1.09 and may even possibly slide down, but a collapse should be expected.Sergey hestanov, Advisor on macroeconomics General Director of the company “Opening Broker”:Photo: “Opening Broker”is 1. There is a high probability that by the end of may introduced in connection with the pandemic of restrictions canceled, and it can make a big difference including the exchange rate. It is most likely that he will be in the range of 76-78 RUB/$, albeit with some doubts: if I know when to let go of the reins and how to respond to the oil market.2. Again, situational as removal of restrictions will behave and inflation. The most probable digit is 0,1–0,2%, but there are limitations for accurate prediction: the lack of statistics first and foremost.3. It seems to me, the price of Brent crude can move down a bit to around $19-22 per barrel since the end of may, the situation may arise that a significant part of extracted oil will be nowhere to go. But more important to us in the Urals, here, the figure will be between $15-19 per barrel with a caveat — the situation may rapidly and strongly to change in any direction. This Reskogo of falling demand was not nearly the mid-twentieth century.4. The Euro is likely to be in the area to $1.06 per Euro. The depth of the problems in the Euro area is somewhat higher than in the United States, and the Euro is likely to subside. At the same time the hardest on the course will affect not so much the economic indicators as the dynamics of the removal of restrictions, and this is pure politics and even the emotions of individual politicians.Sergei Suverov, chief analyst “BKS the Prime Minister”:Photo: Vladimir Gerdo / ТАСС1. The exchange rate will fluctuate in the range of 73-75 rubles/$. The Russian currency is overvalued to the dollar based on the cost of oil, but it is supported afloat currency interventions of the Central Bank of Russia and the demand for BFL as policy easing.2. Inflation in may could reach 0.8–0.9 percent against a gradual shifting of the effect of devaluation on the price of goods, but rising prices are somewhat offset by the disinflationary factors such as increased unemployment and lower incomes.3. The price of oil Brent will be in the range of $20-25 per barrel. A slight relaxation of quarantine in Western economies might restore a little demand for hydrocarbons, also may begins the action of the OPEC deal+ on production cuts. However, the glut in the oil market for a long time will have a negative impact on prices.4. The Euro-dollar exchange rate will fluctuate at the levels of 1.07 to 1.09. Against the backdrop of global recession increases the demand for dollars as the most liquid reserve currency, also in Europe against the background of the pandemic are not excluded disintegration processes. However, the program is essentially a bottomless quantitative easing in the US will prevent a strong strengthening of the American currency.Maxim Kravchenko, managing partner of the investment of Proxima Capital Group:Photo: Proxima Capital Group1. I guess the ruble will remain under pressure as oil prices remain below $30, which deteriorates the balance of the current account by about $10 billion per month. even with the decline in imports of services and tourism in April and may. As noted by the Bank of Russia, the dollar is overdue by a month to the balance of payments, so it is logical that dollar locally it may be at the level of 80 rubles. with the further normalization to the 75 RUB to fall.2. Inflation is expected to be low, in the range of 4.5%, as despite the growth of U.S. imports has fallen dramatically, and the virus is a deflationary shock to the economy.3. The price of oil will be traded in a wide range of $21-30 futures Brent crude for delivery in June. Spot prices can be lower, around $16-25 per barrel, due to excess inventory, which can begin to decline probably until July-August. Despite the forced reduction of production by many players, without buying into stocks until the market finds a balance, and even in summer the demand will remain low due to reducedeniya air until September.4. The Euro is expected at 1.06 to 1.08 to the dollar in connection with the shortage of dollars in the world — many countries and companies now hold the dollars due to falling income, which increases demand for the American currency. It predicts about 81 RUB/€ in April and 84-85 RUB/€ in may.The group “Direct speech”
