May 1 marks 100 days since the formation of the government of Michael mishustina. In such non-standard conditions not started none of the Russian government — its composition were selected for tasks involving the mobilization, but it is not an emergency scenario. Meanwhile, the “emergency” experience April—may 2020 may work in favor of the team mishustina: practice quick deregulation as a means of crisis and rapid, often outside the formal rules, solve the current problems quite successfully combined with tasks which were supposed to be before the plague.If anyone was jealous of appointments in the Prime Minister’s team of Michael mishustina in February 2020, at the end of March this envy must inevitably give way to relief. The personnel of the White house — first Vice-Premiership and the Cabinet — has replenished with a large number of managers of the Federal tax service (FTS), which well corresponded to the set before the new Cabinet of Ministers the task quick completion of digitalization of the state apparatus, strengthening cooperation with regional authorities, intensify project activities in the White house and optimize management schemes. A more distant goal of these changes was an acceleration of GDP growth: the main issue 2020 at its beginning was considered to be low levels of investment in the economy, reducing economic growth potential in the next years to 3%. With the necessary savings in the winter of 2020, there was no question in the ease with which President Vladimir Putin address to the Federal Assembly increases the volume of social support of families, showed that reserves for development in the public sector of the Russian economy is sufficient, if not excessive.The change of government almost always occurs or as a result of the political crisis, or to prevent — otherwise, the government simply does not change. In the case of government of Mikhail mishustina formally it was more about the second option: the White house has replaced the principal in the power of the upcoming constitutional changes. However, 100 days ago, almost no one could have imagined that the first problem the new government will be an unprecedented economic shock caused by a coronavirus pandemic. Forecast of the Bank of Russia decline in GDP in the second quarter is 8% — this exceeds the scale shocks are 2014, 2008 and is comparable to the shock of 1998. But it’s not so much about that: the reserves created for several years by the governments of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, quite allow it to compensate, but the Central Bank says that the financial system can go through 2020-2021 years without the need for expensive emergency measures.The thing in the first place that the government were created under the mobilized��ion tasks are of this type: the accelerated construction of new evolutionary version of the state apparatus and operative management of the economy in the scale of the pandemic is very easy to recognize as fundamentally incompatible. In this respect, it seems very revealing relatively low to enable the MOE and the Ministry of defense, which are almost always used by States to quarantine measures in the activity of the White house. The most important thing that happened since the end of March, is a surprisingly quick distribution of powers between the government, regions, the state Council and President of the “epidemic” field without much participation of law enforcement agencies. An equally important result of the first 100 days of the team’s work mishustina is the lack of any significant failures or growing problems in areas that are not directly linked to the epidemic: emergency management reorganization schemes never free, the effectiveness of “peripheral” tasks always in such conditions is reduced, and the number of random and nonrandom errors is increasing. Large visible failures in these areas not marked — this time in a stealth paramilitary epidemics, it is worth noting now. Also extremely important to demonstrate the synergy of the White house and the Bank of Russia in crisis conditions — previously such easy interaction between the Executive authorities and the Central Bank was not.Meanwhile inevitable sooner or later, the exit of government from the current regime can be extremely interesting. On the one hand, the main element of anti-crisis economic strategy of the White house suddenly became the standard for most economies, a sharp increase in spending, massive government support of the economy and the promise of salvation for all due to the growth of the national debt (the first two steps of the anti-crisis plan of the government is estimated at only 2.1% of GDP, is unlikely to amount to the end of 2021 the plan will cost more than 5-5,5% of annual GDP), and deregulation. This is important for two reasons. In conditions of economic recovery in 2020 and weakened growth 2021 this course inevitably will need to continue. The second reason is the crisis management scheme in place ineffective standard have a chance to survive longer than the crisis itself, and become elements of the new practices. For a little comment on the plans of the government of Michael mishustina for the restructuring of systems of discussion and decision-making, document management, relations with state-owned companies, the new land policy, etc. experience APR 2020 may be no less important than for “digital state”. As became clear in March 2020, before the start of the pandemic “digital state” in the White house understand it is much wider than the consolidation of databases, and not only in the key of effective state control.But all these features will be implemented only in case of success in the fight against caranavi��mustache and his “short” the economic consequences. Until the end of the pandemic it is meaningless to talk about how does the White house with the coronavirus or not: only the result will show who and what may continue.Dmitry Butrin
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