In may, China increased its oil imports by 15% in comparison with April, Bloomberg writes. Thus, Beijing has updated the record set in November of last year, the volume of imported oil into the country in the last month of spring amounted to nearly 48 million tons. “Газета.Ru” explains why China has sharply increased the import of black gold in one of the most difficult periods for the energy market.
In may, China has imported nearly 48 million tonnes of oil, reported Bloomberg. It’s almost 11.5 million barrels a day, that is in fact more than produce all Russian oil producers. Under the deal, OPEC+ Russia can now produce not more than 8.5 million barrels a day.
In an interview with “Газетой.Ru” analysts have expressed the view that China has thus taken the opportunity to buy oil at bargain prices.
“For sound oil importers — China, of course, this is would be extremely shortsighted not to build up oil reserves while prices are so low,” — said the Deputy head of IAC “Alpari” Natalia Milchakova.
you can Count on the fact that after that, China will cease to import large amounts of oil, is not necessary. Because the economy is gradually recovering: this says at least the fact that many States have now lifted the restrictions on flights and in fact are waiting for the influx of Chinese tourists — one of the most solvent in the world, said Milchakova. If not by the end of 2020, in the first half of 2021 the tourism industry will recover, says expert.
This means that the demand for aviation fuel will continue to grow and by the autumn of this year a barrel of Brent will rise to $50, sure analyst. Now on the London Intercontinental exchange barrel is worth $41.
Marcel Salikhov from the Higher school of Economics (HSE) doubts the veracity of the statistics of China’s oil imports, because generally it is at odds with other expert assessments.
“the range of estimates between what is reported by International energy Agency (IEA) and energy information Administration of the United States, and domestic Chinese data is about 2 million barrels. Actually, the Chinese data show that in the first quarter of this year practically has not changed, there is no reduction in demand”, — told “Газете.Ru” expert.
so, no real economic revival of the question. Even despite the fact that information on major cities in China claim that everything is back to previous levels — in terms of the mobility of the population — all this signals the restoration of economic processes in General. After all, from the point of view of industry comparable reliable estimates yet, specifies the scientist.
“SKO��it all, indeed, China decided to take advantage of low prices and increased the last months of strategic reserves, which he has”, — said Salikhov.
Made by the expert the idea about filling the strategic reserves essentially indicates that for a real recovery in oil demand in the world there are no serious reasons, and countries like China really just stored energy in case of a new wave of the epidemic of the coronavirus.
“Judging by other countries, in Russia, the situation is complicated. Consumption has fallen and is recovering quite slowly — said Salikhov. In Europe a similar picture. So now in fact comes secondary effects, if we evaluate the whole situation with the pandemic.”
“Now the markets are betting too much optimism, which is not supported by sufficiently fundamental factors”, — said the expert.
But given the speculative factor, black gold in the coming months may rise in price — at least on the news about the record demand in China. And then they will fall in the process of correction. According to Marcel Salikhov from the HSE at the end of the year, the oil still drop to $30-35 per barrel of Brent.
Natalia Milchakova from IAC Alpari does not share this prediction and believes that summer Brent prices will hold at around $40-45, and the fall will be restored to $50. But this will happen only if you do not happen a second wave of the pandemic.
With the end of the twentieth century the world began to develop dynamically the market of so-called “paper oil”, i.e. futures contracts. By the middle of 1980-ies he often exceeded by the cost of the physical supplies, and today on the stock exchange the main volume is futures contracts.