the Ruble was under particularly heavy blow last week, losing sharply against the Euro and the dollar. The decline in the Euro is easy to explain the recent rise to most of its competitors. For the high demand is a wide range of factors from the actions of the Swiss National Bank’s reaction to the fact that the EU managed to agree on a bulk program support after initial disagreements of politicians. The result EURRUB over a month has appreciated almost 7.5 rubles.
But the decline of the ruble against the dollar raises many questions. It was one of the worst months for the dollar in modern history. Against the Euro it lost about 6%, while the ruble strengthened by 4%.
it’s not in oil, it got almost 5% for the month. Though it quotes explicitly stalled in the second half of the month, but it justifies the weak ruble.
it Seems that the causes should look into the internal factors. Even more important, what they promise to maintain their strength in the near future, sending the ruble to find a new bottom.
the Bank of Russia continued to cut its key interest rate, lowering it by 0.25 percentage points, indicating that there may be another reduction. This has reduced investor interest in assets in rubles. The Russian Ministry of Finance became increasingly apparent problems with the placement of new loans, which was not in previous months. Marked a clear outflows from ruble assets, and lower rates have not yet led to players moving from bonds into shares.
Also in the Central Bank in July lowered the volume of foreign exchange intervention in response to rising oil prices. In August of this support for the ruble to become even weaker, if you look at the price of oil.
the decline of the ruble is a boon to export-oriented economy, but only if there is no outflow of capital. Now this outflow is available, which may force the Central Bank to be back on guard ruble volatility.
In August, likely, the ruble will be able to recover some positions against the Euro, as it looks too overbought. It is possible to return the pair to the 85.
At the same time, it is difficult to say whether this will be a long turn or a short cooldown before a new wave of decline in September-December can bring the Euro to 100. USDRUB, by contrast, has a chance to rise above 75, and can settle in the 75-80 range to the end of the year.