this Is a negative scenario for the global oil industry, said in a research report rating agencies of NKR, which read “RG”. Experts suggest that, on average, a barrel of Brent in such a scenario will cost 30-33 of the dollar in the second half of this year and 32-35 dollars in 2021. This is directly reflected in the Russian oil industry: oil production will fall 13% – up to 490 million tonnes this year, and the proceeds from the sale of oil and oil products will be reduced by half, to 75 billion.
the Baseline scenario is more optimistic: the price of a barrel costs about 35-40 dollars, extraction of Russian oil – 505 million tonnes (close to the expectations of the Ministry of energy), the revenues of $ 95 billion (the peak was in 2012 – nearly 285 billion dollars). In this scenario, the recovery in oil demand to pre-crisis levels is expected in 2022.
Minister of energy of the Russian Federation Alexander Novak announced the first “green shoots” of increased demand in late April, noting that taking into account Russia’s obligations in the framework of OPEC++ production cuts for the year will be about 10%. Later, his Deputy Pavel Sorokin expressed the opinion that the return to pre-crisis levels of consumption will not be quick, and in the end, most likely, stabiliziruemost at a little over 95 million barrels per day, which is close to the estimate of the NKR in the baseline scenario – 91 million barrels.
In Artsakh believe that the quarantine can become the driver of development of the electric car market and, as a consequence, for some countries even the impetus for economic recovery (talking about the European Union, Japan, South Korea). However, for exporters of oil and oil products, the news is mixed: by the end of the agreement OPEC++, these countries may expect a global change in the architecture market.
With a probability of 40%, the market expects competition and the price of 30-40 dollars: countries agree on a new agreement and expelled from the market canadian high oil prices and partly the American slate. Perhaps the deal will be extended OPEC++ (probability 30%), and then prices will be moderate, but Russia and other exporters are fighting for market share. The best option (15%) – this agreement together with the USA, Canada and other countries that are now restriction of production is not connected, but this is unlikely, as the US as a state cannot interfere with private companies. USA can choose and volatility (15%) – to give their companies subsidies and restrict the import of cheap oil, thus maintaining competitiveness.
“the Preservation of low prices for an extended period of time would adversely affect the level of capex in the global oil industry that in the medium term may lead to reduction of production in some countries due to under-investment. So high oil prices can go back and continue in the second half of the twenties �� without any agreements between oil-producing countries, the study says. – Increasing impact on prices will provide a reduction in demand for petroleum products caused by the development of electric vehicles”.
