give the security, because Figures don’t lie, Yes. Confidence in Numbers is big – and, accordingly, needs to consistently miss.
“don’t Trust any statistics unless you have forged.” A Professor felt 100 years has opened in my first lecture in statistics. One of the most important insights of my life, has saved me from many errors. Why do I say this? Now, we are crammed for weeks by the media and the authorities with Figures on the Coronavirus. To give us the impression that the authorities decide, on the Basis of reasonably established facts. It is not so.
Now listening to: Is my money safe? The DOUGH-Podcast with Leonhard Fischer and Volker Schilling
There is General confusion and no one has a Plan. This is remarkable, considering that we live in times of data mining. The sad truth is that, apparently, half the world can find out every day, thanks to our Smartphones a lot about our needs. But our true rate of infection by Corona nobody knows at the Moment, something Accurate. We take the example of Italy. In the case of officially recorded Infected to 100,000, the estimate of various experts, ranging through the really Infected from a few hundred thousand to several million. Thus, we have no idea what the real mortality rate. Also, we don’t really know how to light and, in particular, how the Virus is spread best. So my advice to you: Enjoy all the statistics in the media with the utmost caution.
The current Shutdown-the model has only one half-time until the end of April.
So, unfortunately, we’re in a real Dilemma. The Virus is far too dangerous to ignore it, however, in particular for the Elderly – the average age of the deceased is the 80.
But it is so dangerous that we can accept an economic collapse? We know it’s not really. The promise of the policy, that can protect us from the dangers of the Virus by rigid measures as well as the economic consequences of precisely such measures, is not true. Rather, we will fluctuate in the next few months, inevitably, between the protection of our economic base and our future and the protection against the Virus back and forth. The current Shutdown model has, in my opinion, only a half-time until the end of April.
For me, this results in a likely scenario for the next few months: a Deal will be put on the table. A step easing of the current shutdown against our willingness, our mobile phone data can be to the movement control used.
It will be a Deal put on the table: A step easing of the current shutdown against our willingness, our mobile phone data can be to the movement control used.
Not a great Deal, but in these times, there are no great Deals. Thus, schools, Restaurants, and shops are open again. But sorry guys, no Clubbing, no major events of any kind – it is a very maue party season. And constantly is tested, tested again, and much must be controlled. The Numbers rise, then individual measures could be tightened again. In addition, we will have to wear it very often masks. For the Fashionistas among us, there are then determined the masks of Prada.
Since I tend to Yes of to Optimusmus, now two positive forecasts.
firstly, although I have no idea when a vaccine on the market will be. But I’m sure that this crisis will bring forth new Impftechnologien that improve our lives in a sustainable way. And secondly, I want to bet that in the next few months, a cocktail of Drugs is found, the improved the course of infection significantly.
In the Wake of everything would be much easier. So let’s forget all the Numbers and model calculations, and trust my positive gut feeling. And the says that in high summer because of new drugs, the situation is much more relaxed can be. In this sense, I’m now planning my holiday and also buy careful the first share. In the supermarket there was today, by the way, even toilet paper.
Until next week and watch yourself and your future.
This article was written by Leonhard Fischer
*The contribution of “After the Shutdown: control of movement, instead of curfew,” published by LOOT. Contact with the executives here.