The peak risks in the corporate sector created by coronavirus epidemic came in the second half of June 2020, when the risk was nearly a third of 1335 companies included in the relevant lists of the government. Over the past two weeks, the risk area left 150 companies and 28 industries, which received state support, the Ministry believes the risks remaining for the 305 companies. In addition to individual sectors, among them transport companies, and the separate components of utilities, the situation in the corporate sector are stable or improving. At this rate one can hardly expect the expansion of the industry government support — most of the really needy got it already.“B” became aware of the data monitoring industry risks that the economy in weekly and monthly mode counts for the backbone and infrastructure companies eligible for state support in connection with the coronavirus epidemic and quarantine restrictions of economic activity from March 2020. Only a government Commission, in this matter acting under the direction of the first Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov, has identified 94 industries 1335 of such companies and organizations, monitoring of the Ministry of economy compiled from 1033 companies employment to 6.6 million people.According to this information, highest corporate risks were estimated as of June 22, when in the risk area were 423 companies after almost monotonous growth in their numbers since may. Since the end of June, the number fell, on July 9, it is 305 companies — it is about 29.5% of those participating in the monitoring (or 23% of the total list is on the peak, there were 32%). Over the last two weeks (25 June to 9 July), the list of issues left 150 companies and 28 industries at risk industry remain 41 and 197 of the companies in them. “Responsible attitude of companies towards monitoring allowed us to determine industry and personal negative trends, focusing support resources on the problem segments. This is confirmed by the sustained positive trend in the decline in the number of companies in a risk zone,— said “Kommersant” a source in the financial-economic bloc of the White house, commenting on the monitoring data of the Ministry of economy.— However, some industries still only comes out from under the restrictions”. According to him, the government will “gradually move from sectoral support measures to address”, in particular, within the framework of government resolution No. 651.The criteria that guide the economy: the industry is at risk if more than 30% of distressed enterprises (included in the list 1335), critical is the situation in the industry with 75% or more of distressed companies.Guided by this criterion in General, we can assume that the entire economy has left the risk area only in early July, entering it at the end of may 2020. Require constant attention of the White house, the situation can be considered only for 11 sectors where the number of distressed companies increases (monitoring of the Ministry of economy contains only consolidated data without mentioning companies). In some of them (passenger and private housing sector, mainly industrial utilities), the share of problem — above 75%. Besides them the list of 11 industries: specialized and heavy engineering, aerospace, publishing of Newspapers, treatment of spent nuclear fuel, cinemas, fishing, construction, utilities and sports and fitness organizations.Only the companies in these 11 sectors, provided state support for 8.1 billion rubles, and the government will obviously support additional: materials of the monitoring of the correlation between the amount already provided state support and exit of companies and industries of the area at risk. So, for all companies monitoring of the Ministry of economy (industries with high risk) allocated credit support to 70.5 billion rubles In 18 sectors, which is marked by the active reduction in the number of distressed companies allocated credit support by 52.3 billion rubles in 12 sectors received 10.1 billion RUB support, the number of distressed companies has not increased and not decreased. All in all, 150 companies in all industries that left the area at risk, received a total 115,89 billion RUB credit support is 79% of all loans obtained by strategic organisations.At this rate (a reduction of distressed companies in the list of rates to 10% or more per week) by September 2020, will speak about the localization of the “coronavirus” mini-crisis in several industries that spring lockdown caused damage that can not be overcome the recovery growth is likely to aviation. In most other cases state support will be limited to: subsidies will be more of a straight support of the owners and will not support employment, which is the main goal of all anti-crisis programs of the White house the spring and summer of 2020. It is also clear that in the coming weeks should expect a revival of the campaign for the continuation and expansion of state support, increasing pressure on industries, the government: mainly the post-crisis plans of entrepreneurs are already determined, and they have very little time until the fall of 2020, when the recovery will be palpable, and the reasons to declare the impending disaster will have much less.Dmitry Butrin
