Over the past few weeks, the thesis of the almost inevitable emergence of a new bipolarity in the form of a confrontation between China and the United States from challenging assumptions became virtually a common place — the starting point of many arguments about what will be the main content of international politics after the systemic crisis of 2020. You can find already quite detailed arguments about what is the world and, most importantly, what should be Russia’s foreign policy in these conditions. Such is the nature of the information society: virtually any significant occurrence in a very short time, goes through all the stages of an open panel discussion.Including therefore, most of our reasoning is likely to have little fundamental sense. But we should not forget about the factor of nonlinearity, which is not less important. In this respect, what is happening now does contain a lot of similarities with the great, or First world, war. Exactly the same as then, “suddenly” outbreak of the crisis was the natural result of many accumulated in the global market economy and international policy contradictions. This, in turn, will allow you to talk about the move to the new global and regional balance of power. More fair than the liberal world order, the completion of which, it seems, is not upset nor its leaders in the West or powers—revisionists in the East. But it would be unforgivable analytical simplification to ignore the most important experience of the great war: its nature, content and, most importantly, the results did not correspond to a linear idea about the future of those who enthusiastically welcomed the shots in Sarajevo.However, even given the many uncertainties and open questions the likelihood that it was kind of a bipolar scenario will become an international reality, equally great and equally disturbing.While China is very wary of the possibilities of the call, which revealed to him leave US. In his first edition of the “time of morality” in Chinese foreign policy — the willingness to help the world suffering from a pandemic scourge, and at the same time to make certain didactic positions — was quite short. It is already clear that 2020 will bring, for example, the unprecedented revival of the Chinese-Russian relations. Even compared to several previous years, which was very successful. The more that large-scale partnership with China can be, unfortunately, really critical for the Russian economy.But despite China’s efforts to bring down the degree of tension, flywheel, deal with it already unwound and becomes practnical innovation solidarity of the community of Western countries in global Affairs. And therefore, even if not right now, but split the world into two opposing poles becomes foreseeable future.This new edition bipolarity will be threatening to the major achievements of mankind in international politics over the past 100 years. In the first place because she did not recall the historical period 1945-1990 years. It is in this context a new bipolar world is also the most dangerous, although the most likely scenario for the development of international policy. The reason is that it occurs within a single international system and world market economy, from which mankind was spared during the Cold war. The new bipolarity will be combined with the preservation of economic interdependence. It is to this most explosive form of global confrontation, the world economy was in the last 30-40 years. There are serious grounds to hope that the cosmetic restrictions of the freedoms of movement of goods, capital and people, we are introducing will help to destroy the interdependence of States in the global market during the term acceptable short to save the world.We can’t expect that to change the behavior of States. Now all the talk on the topic “the world will never be the same” is limited to estimates of who and how to earn more, and who “stretch the legs”. Yes, indeed, what else can you say when major changes in the motives of political behavior at the level of States, companies and other public institutions are foreseen? Pandemic and recession will inevitably further alter the balance of power. Those who will become more powerful, will seek to expand those who lose, to defend themselves. But this would happen in a truly United world.From 1945 to 1990 the world was divided into two virtually isolated from other economic zones. The Soviet Union and its allies — is a huge North Korea, where communication with the other part of the world was very limited. The leaders of the West — USA and Europe — that especially did not suffer. They quietly lived in their own international community and, in principle, have little overlap with the Eastern bloc. The only area where the bipolar US—USSR was more or less true, is the military strategic nuclear deterrence. But it is the most affordable for the rational and strict control from the government. Hotline between the Kremlin and the White house was the most powerful international Institute of security and allow fast enough to settle the most important for humanity questions.The rest of the 1945-1990 years, the international policy lived in a state of bipolarity, but in terms of confrontation between the two about��Napoleonic and relatively independent from each other worlds. The USSR and the USA did not act as competitors on global markets. In principle, the Soviet Union enjoyed the status of your own resource self-sufficiency, and to its economic and political collapse brought incorrect model of state management of the economy. Armed conflicts between the Eastern and Western blocks occurred at the periphery of their geopolitical influence.The only really dangerous incident — the Cuban missile crisis was resolved quickly elegant diplomatic game. The Korean war of 1950-1953 was the most dangerous conflict at the dawn of the Cold war because it was leaking close to the borders of the USSR, but it remained the only such example, where Soviet and American military came into direct contact. Thus, in the period 1945-1990 years, the possibility of escalating a regional conflict into a global was minimal — this area was tightly controlled by Moscow and Washington.This has allowed academic Affairs to create the myth that this order is most stable. And at the same time created the belief that any stable bipolarity.China does not have its own considerable natural resources, and its access to global markets is available and becomes more visible. The Chinese influence is present everywhere, even within America. In other words, the degree of interdependence of opposing powers is not comparable to the Cold war period. Therefore, the main problem with a new bipolarity in the fact that, in contrast to the era 1945-1990 years, it may be the prelude to a real military confrontation.Is there a chance to avoid transient bipolar? Nuclear deterrence remains the only factor that makes a major war is irrational. For the first time in the history of human civilization, technological advances have created the preconditions for most traditional international politics way of resolving objective contradictions has lost its appeal. The problem is in the fact that China provides the opportunities that the international community was fully informed of the status of its nuclear arsenals. Therefore, without the moderating influence of Russia, the US is still the temptation to solve the problem of Chinese call historically justified way.
