Tensions around Taiwan have increased. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, concerns are growing that China could launch a similar attack on the island. 24 War simulations by a US institute now show that the consequences of an invasion for China, Taiwan, Japan and the US would all be devastating.
A full-scale Chinese invasion of Taiwan would result in the defeat of Chinese forces and leave a victorious US military just as “crippled.” A war would result in thousands of casualties among Chinese, Taiwanese, US and Japanese forces.
These are the findings of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). CNN previewed the report. The “CSIS” has carried out one of the most comprehensive simulations of a possible conflict over Taiwan.
China regards the democratic island republic as part of the People’s Republic, while Taiwan, on the other hand, has long regarded itself as an independent state. Chinese leader Xi Jinping has threatened to use military force to bring the island under Beijing’s control.
In its 24 war simulations, the CSIS comes to the conclusion that an invasion would not be successful for China and that the price of an attack would be enormous, not only for China. “The United States and Japan would lose dozens of ships, hundreds of planes, and thousands of military personnel. Such losses would damage the US position in the world for years to come,” the report said.
The most important findings of the simulations:
However, war is not “inevitable or even likely,” says the CSIS. The Chinese leadership could also pursue a strategy of diplomatic isolation or economic coercion against Taiwan. China would do everything to avoid a military conflict, so that supply chains are not disrupted and the Chinese economy does not suffer, defense expert Dan Grazier believes to “CNN”.
The renowned American defense expert Timothy R. Heath from the think tank Rand also considers a war unlikely because the Chinese population would not support it and the government now also knows after the violent corona protests that the citizens could protest against it.
In addition, the Chinese army has been modernized and technically upgraded. But she has no war experience. “It would be unprecedented, extremely risky and frankly bizarre for a major power like China not to even test its military in a limited combat operation before launching an attack,” Heath said in a blog post.
Tensions between China and Taiwan have recently escalated. Following the visit of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in August, Beijing launched large-scale military maneuvers and is maintaining military pressure with increased deployments of warships and aircraft in the Taiwan Straits.
On Monday, the Chinese government protested against the visit of an FDP delegation to the island republic. Taiwan is a part of China and the government in Beijing is the only legitimate entity representing all of China, the spokesman reiterated. Even before the ten-strong delegation landed, China’s army began new maneuvers in the strait. According to the Defense Ministry in Taipei, 57 Chinese military aircraft and four warships were deployed near Taiwan within 24 hours. 28 planes entered Taiwan’s air surveillance zone.