the Transfers from the Federal budget to the Pension Fund of Russia in 2021 will increase by almost 1 trillion rubles, follows from the draft budget of the Fund. At the completion of the FIU plans to send more than 20% of all expenditures of the Federal budget of Russia.

the Federal budget in 2021 will dramatically increase subsidies to the Pension Fund of Russia (PFR) — almost 1 trillion roubles compared to the legislatively approved rate of the current year. The share of Federal transfers in the revenues of the PFR reaches of 42.6% of the maximum from 2017.

RBC got acquainted with the project of the basic characteristics of the budget of the FIU for the years 2021-2023, dated 9 Jun. The authenticity of the document confirmed the Federal official. The project was prepared on the basis of the economic forecast of the Ministry of economic development, compiled in late may. After this, the Ministry has clarified the parameters of the forecast, according to RBC, and the government has not yet approved the final version.

the Ministry of Finance must adjust the corresponding parameters of the budgets based on the final macroeconomic forecast, the letter of the first Deputy Minister of Finance Tatyana Nesterenko the main managers of budgetary funds of 8 June.

the Income of the Pension Fund are planned in 2021 at the level of 9.67 trillion rubles., of them 4,12 trillion will provide the Federal budget through transfers. Federal support will increase by 992 billion RUB compared to the expected output in 2020 (3,22 trillion), or 768 billion rubles in comparison with the plan for 2021 from the current law on the budget of the FIU (amendment approved in March).

In 2022 and 2023, Federal transfers to the budget of the FIU, as the project will amount to 4.3 trillion rubles annually, and its share in the total revenues of the PFR will exceed 40%. Prior to that, from 2017, the FIU dependence on subsidies from the Federal budget fell from 45 to 36%.

it Turns out that in 2021, about 21% of all Federal spending will be directed to the Pension Fund. The Finance Ministry proposes to fix budget expenditure 2021 at the level of 2020 is 19.7 trillion rubles (this proposal was included in the national economic recovery plan, presented in early June).

the Relevant amendments to the budget of the FIU in 2020 is still not made, but it is expected that the forecast revenue Fund from insurance premiums this year will decrease due the negative impact of the epidemiological crisis on the salary Fund, and the planned transfers from the Federal budget will increase in comparison with the March amendments.

the parameters of the budget of the RPF has influenced government decisions on state support of business, accepted on the background of the pandemic coronavirus. In particular, indefinite decline in the overall rate of insurance contributions from 30 to 15% of salaries above the minimum wage for small and medium business, including the contribution rate to the Pension Fund decreased from 22 to 10% of salary. In 2021 FIU will miss due this measures approximately 387 billion rubles., which will be compensated from the Federal budget. The loss will be in the current year, the Ministry had estimated it 350 billion.

In early June, the President signed the law, freed from the payment of taxes and insurance premiums for the second quarter of 2020, small businesses and individual entrepreneurs in the most affected industries. FIU lost income from this measure will be reflected in the current year (and thus also compensated from the Federal budget), but estimates of these losses yet.

a Significant increase in transfers to off-budget funds associated with a reduction in the rate of insurance contributions for small businesses, and the General reduction in contributions to the Pension Fund due consequences of the proliferation of COVID-19, confirmed in the press service Ministry of Finance. “The increase in the transfer to the OPS (mandatory pension insurance. — RBC) due to the need to compensate for this decrease in order to fulfill all social obligations”, — the Ministry said.

press service Pension Fund declined to comment.

the Second half of the additional transfers from the Federal budget to the budget of the FIU in 2021 (about 415 billion roubles) is associated with a reduction in the national wage Fund due coronavirus. In 2020 the salary Fund from which insurance premiums are calculated employers to the pension Fund will be reduced by 1.3 trillion rubles compared to the previous January forecast of economic development (to 24.8 trillion). In 2021, it will be reduced relative to the January forecast for 934 billion rubles (to 26.9 trillion). The pension Fund levies from employers covers about 73% of the obligations on payment of insurance pensions to the older generation, and the difference is covered from the Federal budget.

the Overall structure of Federal transfers to the budget of the FIU is as follows (as of 2020): more than 50% is used to pay pension insurance, about 18% for the state pensions (pensions of former civil servants), about 13% — in the provision of maternity capital, 13% — for a one-time monetary payment (EDV) for certain categories of citizens.

experts of the Institute of social policy of the HSE in the baseline scenario of economic recovery (within 12 months) expect that reducing payroll by 20% the loss of all three extra-budgetary funds (PFR, mandatory medical insurance Fund and social insurance Fund) amount to 932 billion rubles., and in the case of reduction by 30% to 1.55 trillion rubles., it follows from the review “the Impact of the pandemic COVID-19 on the institutions of social insurance”. Under the most pessimistic outcome, which suggest�� reducing PAYROLL costs by 40%, the lost income of the social funds reached 2.2 trillion rubles. According to preliminary estimates of economists, to offset losses in the insurance premiums may need to increase the transfers from the Federal budget to extra-budgetary funds up to 60% of the planned amount in 2020 and to 28% in 2021. In the baseline scenario due reduction of the wage Fund requires an increase in transfer even by 1.38 trillion in 2020 and to 173 bn in 2021.

Ivan Tkachev, Yuliya Starostina