the Events of recent months have completely wiped out last year’s forecasts of experts of the housing market. Experts say the emergence of entirely new trends. The demand for apartments during the first week of isolation has decreased in 4 times, and now virtually disappeared. We emphasize: we are not talking about buying a home, and just about narrow-minded interest. The number of transactions calculated ones.
the Mode of isolation — not the main reason of “stagnation”. This factor partly acts in Moscow, but not in the regions where they work, for example, beauty salons and furniture stores, people visit each other’s homes and take walks in parks.
more recently, analysts have stated rising demand and shortage of available apartments in such conditions the sellers were supposed to influence the price level. However, it is clear that after the end of the quarantine, the leadership will take a few customers who have (and can maintain) a financial safety cushion. The bulk of Russians have already taken the decision to postpone acquisition of housing to better times.
Now apartments on the secondary market quickly, cheaper, sellers are showing incredible tractability. “Secondary market, usually so conservative, this time reacted to the situation quite sensitively. Apparently, the apartment owners realize how serious the situation in the economy, and I foresee difficulties with the purchasing power of compatriots. They understand that preferential mortgage at 6.5% will pull the remaining demand from “secondary” for new buildings”, — said General Director of the Federal portal “World apartments” Pavel Lutsenko.
Dimensions measured prices in 70 cities of Russia with population more than 300 thousand people and their dynamics from 1 April. The average fall in the country amounted to 2%. Square meter of the secondary real estate decreased in price in 52 cities, rose in 16 cities, in two remained unchanged. Most of the last month prices dipped in Yakutsk (-4,8%), Krasnoyarsk (-4,1%) and Arkhangelsk (-4%). In Yekaterinburg, Simferopol, Kazan, Krasnodar, Nizhny Tagil, Moscow and Leningrad regions reducing the cost per square meter amounted to 2.8-3.6 percent.
Moscow in this list has occupied 13-e a place: price per square meter fell in April by 2.4%. Peter was in the middle of the list with a decline of 1.9%. Cities where “square” has increased by more than 1% just six: Cherepovets (+3,4%), Vladimir (+3,1%), Makhachkala (+3%), Naberezhnye Chelny (+2.9%) and Novokuznetsk (+2,6%) and Ryazan (+2%).
“If this goes on, prices on the secondary market could fall by 10% after the end of the quarantine, and 20% to the end of the year,” predicts Paul Lutsenko.
Let’s count. If the cost of an apartment of 60 square meters in the provincial city now stands at 3 million rubles, by December, “the price” will fall to 2.4 million rubles. In Sankt-Petersburg and Moscow, the difference is even more noticeable. 5 million from St. Petersburg and Moscow 8 million rubles by the end of the year miraculously turn into respectively 4 and 6.4 million.
“Owners who decided to sell their assets, try to quickly sell them. Those who are not ready to sell apartments at reduced prices, will withdraw them from sale until better times”, — the expert believes.
“Usually, after the downtime — for example, during public holidays — the activity of buyers was significantly increased. However, now the situation is completely different: the market is, figuratively speaking, on vacation and in a difficult economic situation. Because of the forced isolation affected the financial situation of a large number of potential buyers — people employed in different spheres of business, government staff, etc.,” says the Director of the Department of the secondary market of INCOM-Nedvizhimost Sergey Shloma.
Sellers can only hope to two groups of buyers: mortgage holders and investors — people with money in their pockets, who buy apartments for subsequent lease. “According to our estimations, during the current year, every tenth transaction for the purchase of second homes will fall under the category of conditional investment — continues Sergey Shloma. — This forecast may seem dubious in terms of the expected reduction of prices. However, in times of crisis, the ruble is extremely volatile, so the major holders of ruble savings will be looking for “‘safe haven” to keep them from devaluation. And apartments for sale and renting for the majority of market participants remains the most reliable way of earning, especially in the case of problems with the main place of work. The vast majority of transactions for investment purposes, 80%, take place in the segment of budget apartments — Studio”.
With the new the situation is a little different. In April, despite the transition of the real estate market in virtual reality, developers have raised the price per square meter nationwide average of 1.2%. More precisely, new homes rose in 53 of 70 cities, 15 fell, two of them, the price remained unchanged. In the first place, the growth started Yakutsk, Murmansk, Nizhniy Novgorod, Krasnoyarsk, Vladivostok and Chita — an increase of more than 3% for the month. From 1% to 3% lost per square meter in Magnitogorsk, Astrakhan, Kirov, Smolensk, Nizhny Tagil, Chelyabinsk, Ufa, Tula and Grozny. In Moscow, the cost per square meter in the primary market rose in April by 1.6%, in St.-Petersburg — on 0,1%.
“measures of state support of developers and especially the launch of the program of preferential mortgage at 6.5% triggered a new round of price increases. Most developers believed that cheap mortgage padstheoppression buyers to deals after the lifting of the quarantine, and “zeroing” of oil will make people, as in all previous crises, to hide your savings in real estate. As far as their optimistic forecast comes true, will show time” — says Pavel Lutsenko, but if the optimists are wrong, they will be able to return the cost per square meter to the original price. And submit its action as “unprecedented discount.”
According to Lutsenko, the prices for new buildings will hold plus or minus at the same level until the end of the economic turbulence is not “crippled” consumer demand. And then sellers have to lower prices to historically low levels. However, exactly how the situation will develop, now will not tell anybody.
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