Today’s Thursday April 30 carries for the ruble maximum risks. As it is this day expire may futures contracts on Brent – explained the expert. – Investors fear that Brentповторит the fate of the oil grade WTI, the price of which for the first time in history left in a minus (-40,32 per barrel)after similar contracts.
Therefore, most of Castelvetro prefer before the “X hours” to get rid of those contracts for Brent at any nearest available price. And some lifting of quotations of oil on the eve of Wednesday may only exacerbate the scale of possible one-day sales.
this far-reaching ramifications that will bring, since almost no relationship to the physical supply of oil. But if the sale of “e-paper” oil goes too far, the dollar again moreprofessional mark at 76.5-77 rubles. If the sale will be but small, and quotes the may Brent will remain at least above $ 20 per barrel, “American” will focus on levels 75-75,3 rubles.
And finally, if all went well, and it appears that the bulk of those wishing to leave the oil market’s already done before, and the oil will behave quiet today, the quotations of the dollar short, can this positive even to go to the area of 72.7-73 rubles.
the Corridor of fluctuations of currencies in may can be very broad: 74-78 rubles per dollar and 78-85 rubles per Euro. A more definitive forecast for this month cannot be given.
as in may, while the maximum uncertainty with a further direction to global markets. Still, the index was doing well from the bottom, but investors put into the stock price advances a bit too much for companies in the future.
Global index S&P500 (USA) is located at a distance of less than 15% from pre-crisis peaks, the technological Nasdaq index (USA) within generally 10% of these peaks, and he played more than 70% of the March decline.
Technically, this is a clear positive, and the dollar gradually depreciates that is why almost the entire basket of currencies, including the ruble. Investors are laid on the partial of the economy in many States of the United States, allowed with 4 maraboto most businesses in Italy and the slow lifting of the quarantine in other countries.
For the ruble (in contrast to our economy) the news is even more important than the timing of the lifting of the quarantine in Russia. But all these good things for the future profits of the companies can be already “in the price”. And how to continue to take positive?You need to consider that in all the post-pandemic countries rebounded sharply, unemployment, citizens fell, average incomes, and overall consumer behavior will change. People will be more careful in terms of security when visiting public places, and in terms of cost, ugasiti in spending. The manufacturers will drop the revenue recovery will be delayed.
This logic exceptichat is impossible, and if the exchange will go again in the peak correctional, and cash flow from outside to Russia will fall immediately. The dollar is going to saywer range, but on a more serious weakening of the ruble will hold only the efforts of the Central Bank.
But if Western markets continue steady rise, the dollar may even fall back to around 70 rubles. But while this scenario is too much to be laid not necessary.
