Fled to Russia, the founder of the Belarusian high-tech Park Valery Tsepkalo informed the Minsk already withdrawn from the presidential race, said in an interview with Forbes about his future plans.

“it is still two weeks to go the election campaign. Therefore, I will deal with the election campaign. This is a more effective way than sitting in the so-called “American” — the KGB prison”, — he said.

According to him, the aim is to show the Belarusian society “the essence of the regime”, to demonstrate how Lukashenko “violates the Constitution, laws, falsificare documents”.

“Being outside of Belarus, I can stay media. And Lukashenko gift in the form of remand me into custody will not receive”, — summed up the politician.

That Tsepkalo with the children, fearing persecution, left Belarus, it became known a few days ago. At the end of June for internal Affairs has initiated preliminary examination of his “illegal activities” at the request of the owner of the group of construction companies that participated in the creation of the Park of high technologies, the citizen of Turkey Sedat Ideji. The accused Tsepkalo that the businessman did not pay for the construction of the house.

Recall: Tsepkalo was denied registration as a presidential candidate because of the unreliability of the collected signatures. In addition, the end of the week, the Belarus Supreme court refused to initiate civil proceedings on complaints other candidate – ex-banker Victor Babariko – refusal to register him as a presidential candidate. The definition States that Babariko missed the deadline for the realization of the right to appeal the decision of the CEC. Thus, Babariko finally withdrew from the election.

He Babariko besides, already in jail on suspicion of organizing a criminal group to bring hundreds of millions of dollars abroad. The ex-banker were charged under three articles of the Criminal code of Belarus: part 2 of article 235 (“Legalization of the means received by a criminal way”), part 2 of article 243 (“Evasion from payment of taxes, which caused damage in especially large size”), part 2 of article 431 (“giving a bribe repeatedly or in the large size”).

To date, among admitted to the election of Lukashenka’s opponents real contender remains only Svetlana Tikhanovski — wife of the arrested blogger Sergei Tikhanovski. On 17 July, the headquarters Tsepkalo and Babariko urged his supporters to support her in election campaign.

Since the other two major opposition candidates, Victor Babariko and Sergei Tikhanovski, promptly arrested, the decision to leave the country for Valery Tsepkalo was quite natural, — the candidate of political Sciences, Executive Director of the monitoring organization CIS-EMO Stanislav Bychok. — In addition, Tsepkalo for all��time occupied the serious posts, there may be contacts with representatives of various state structures of the Republic. Old friends could hint about the impending arrest. Then, they are friends.

Finally, after refusal to register itself in Belarus Tsepkalo could not do so much. Now, having escaped, so to speak, at the operational political space, it could be an official emissary of the Belarusian opposition in Russia. Because this never really was: all the Belarusian opposition was focused in terms of forced migration exclusively on the global West. From Poland to the United States.

Here we see, perhaps, a new global trend. However, too early to say, but drew anyone’s attention that the Belarusian opposition for the first time publicly spoke in Russian? And at meetings in addition to the white-red-white finally the current state flags of the Republic of Belarus?

Fear of competition is any incumbent running for a new term. Even in democratic States. Another issue is that not all countries, these concerns can be resolved promptly removing or refusal to register opposition candidates.

<a href = "SP": — How to actually think and Tsepkalo, and Babariko could compete with Lukashenka?

— The “official” rating of the current President is 76%. “Informal” — 3%. Of course, both figures are highly questionable. Moreover, it is difficult to say which is more questionable.

Assume that the actual rating of President Lukashenko is higher than any of the opposition candidates. Registered and unregistered. But overall – significantly below 50%.

In other words, in a hypothetical transparent counting of votes would be able to finish the second round of presidential elections. On which the opposition could unite around the candidate who would have made a real competitor to Lukashenko. What would happen is approximately what we see today — the Union of non-system opposition behind a single figure. In this case, pretty Svetlana Tikhanovski.

The situation with the Belarusian opposition on the eve of the election is somewhat reminiscent of the Russian situation in the Khabarovsk territory in connection with the protests over the arrest of Sergey Furgala. In Khabarovsk, after all, take to the streets not only for the Furgala, as for their democratic rights and interests. From high utility tariffs to the limits of expression.

In Belarus, appears to be a similar story. It is clear that Svetlana Tikhanovski is not a politician and not a speaker. Although learning quickly. It is clear that melagenina photograph of three young women with a heart, a fist and a V-sign of victory, is a political technology. But it is also clear that fatigue is a significant part of the citizens from the tenure of power andthe lack of the ability to choose who you want.

Here, of course, still played a role and “arondissements” of the official Minsk, and fears of an economic nature. And in modern, information-intensive life happened six years ago, the Kiev “Maidan” does not work as a deterrent: “do You want to in the Ukraine?”. This mantra of Minsk has no effect on the population.

In this configuration, the rating of the power leads to the support of anyone. It could be the wife Tsepkalo, and the wife or the son of Babariko if they were registered.

In General, of course, “for anyone but the current government”, — this is a problematic mindset. And if officialdom is blaming the protest voter “irresponsible opposition”, then from the side we see a somewhat different picture: who are fundamentally responsible for what at the time 2020 a significant part of Belarusian society is ready to vote that way?

The blame for this subversive Western NGOs? Noembersi-liberal (someone like that) Russian business interests? The Illuminati? So many conspiracy theories here to breed!

Another thing is that they feel society has not accepted. The Illuminati does not exist, like Santa Claus.

<a href = "SP": — How, in your opinion, legitimate Lukashenko's victory in the apparent "cleansing" of real opponents? How it will perceive Belarusians in Moscow and in the West?

— In the Western direction emerging, it seemed, in the last year with Minsk warming threatens to turn “frost”. In Moscow traditionally is to recognize and support those politicians who actually are in power. Regardless of the circumstances under which this power was obtained. Was Yanukovych — supported him. “Has gone” Yanukovych — recognize the legitimacy of Poroshenko.

Since it is difficult to assume that after the August 9, 2020, the actual power in Belarus will pass from Alexander Lukashenko to someone else, Moscow will continue to work with him, how he worked before.

As for public sentiment, the protest dynamics — a thing unpredictable. At the peak of the “Bolotnaya” protests in Moscow seemed that here-here — and everything will change. But after some time somehow ceased to appear. And to mind came the well-known Maxim of the late Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin: “Some people think that after the election something will happen. And after the election there will be nothing. And that’s life.”

The opposite example, however, was in the Ukraine. Where “independence” seemed to have started to fizzle out. But then joined the new dynamics that led to absolutely unpredictable — even for the CIA! — consequences.