The United States, Germany, Britain, Russia preparing for Mora, counting, how many will die from coronavirus: the worst-case scenario to 40 million in 2020

the morning of Saturday, March 28, the official number of infected with the novel coronavirus COVID-19 in the world has reached 600 thousand people. The number of infected but not tested and are not revealed clearly already exceeds millions Officially, from infections caused by a coronavirus, had died almost 28 thousand people, the morning of Saturday, March 28, the official number of infected with the novel coronavirus COVID-19 in the world has reached 600 thousand people. The number of infected but not tested and are not revealed clearly already exceeds millions
Kzenon / DepositPhotos Officially, from infections caused by a coronavirus, had died almost 28 thousand people

the morning of Saturday, March 28, the official number of infected with the novel coronavirus COVID-19 in the world has reached 600 thousand people. The number of infected but not tested and are not revealed clearly already exceeds millions. Officially, from infections caused by a coronavirus, had died almost 28 thousand people.

At a time when the pandemic is already spreading uncontrollably across the countries of Europe and USA, the governments of many countries require their scientists to provide at least a roughe models of the development of further events. All submissions say about the same – almost all the governments of the world right now, right at this very moment, missing the last opportunity to prevent the deaths of tens of millions of people.

According to computer models developed at Imperial College London, unless preventive action is taken, in the worst case cov in the year of 2020 can be infected with 7 billion people and killed 40 million people. (That is from the virus will die more than the soldiers died for the time of the Second world war). But despite a coming pestilence among the population, until now in most countries are not taking any strict measures against the spread of infection (for example, impose quarantine instead of vacation).

Forecast Germany: the most positive scenario – 1 million infected, the worst – 1 million die
UK: worst case scenario – the death of 500 thousand people, the current scenario is just 6 000
USA: worst case scenario – up to 200 thousand by the summer, the best – 80 thousand
In Russia: worst case scenario – the secret, best – kept secret. But there are bad forecasts
the Ministry of health recommended to be buried in closed coffins of the victims of the coronavirus, and the pathologists to carry anti-plague suits

As the study showed, if you reduce social contacts of older people by 60% and the rest of the population by 40%, the number of victims of coronavirus can be reduced in two times. But even in this case the health systems in all countries will still be overloaded.

Only strict quarantine measures may reduce the number of victims. If you implement about the same everywhere rules it is possible to keep the number of deaths at 0.2 cases per 100 thousand of the population per week. Then the number of victims of coronavirus will be “only” 1.3 million people. But if you delay the introduction of quarantine, waiting for a figure of 1.6 deaths per 100 thousand populationI’m a week, the pandemic will take almost 10 million lives.

Forecast Germany: the most positive scenario – 1 million infected, the worst – 1 million die

In the working paper of the Ministry of internal Affairs of Germany, prepared on behalf of the Minister of internal Affairs of Germany Horst Seehofer, it is reported how the current situation in the country with the spread of coronavirus can affect internal security.

According to the magazine Der Spiegel, newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung and TV channels NDR and WDR, in a confidential document entitled “How to take control of COVID-19” the experts recommend to put virus barrier on the example of South Korea, that is, in droves conduct tests consistently and to isolate infected people.

From the previous methods on the principle of “Carry out tests to confirm the situation” should be abandoned in favor of the principle of “Conduct tests to anticipate the situation.”

the Researchers modeled a scenario in which 6 April, enjoy 50 thousand tests a day, from April 13 – 100 thousand, and at the end of April – 200 thousand.

In the most positive scenario, the researchers suggest that the infected in Germany are about 1 million people, died about 12 thousand. Stringent precautions should be observed for two months, but then should remain extra vigilant, because the immunity from the virus will get only a small part of the population.

In the worst case, if the government does not take sufficient measures, the authors of the study admit that in the near future will be infected 70 percent of the population; with more than 80% of people in need of intense medical care, will not be able to get to the hospital, and the number of deaths will exceed 1 million.

According to Saturday, March 28, in Germany from the coronavirus had died of 351 people, the total number would be 51 thousand.

UKI: the worst-case scenario – the death of 500 thousand people, but these measures have reduced this figure to 6 000

the British Government ten days ago has received the data showing that the worst case scenario in the country from the coronavirus can be killed up to 500 thousand people. If it does not take any preventive measures. With the introduction of moderate restrictive measures, the number of deaths reduced by half – to 260 thousand.

These numbers have forced the government to declare that Britain entered the most severe since the Second world war measures to restrict the movement of people. People are encouraged to give up visiting pubs, theatres, cinemas, clubs and opportunities to work from home.

These measures was to reduce the initial number of victims to be “terrible” – up to 20 thousand or less.

And March 28, researchers have reduced the number of losses among the population for at least another three times. Thanks to the continuation of strict measures of isolation of the people now in Britain is expected around 5700 deaths from coronavirus, far below initial forecasts, writes today The Times.

According to Imperial College London, the government’s strategy to increase social distancing between working. And this is one of the most effective methods of struggle against Covid-19.”

But statistics is the science of flexible. Every year in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland as a result of natural causes kills about 600 thousand people. Given that older people with chronic diseases are the most vulnerable group of the population that may be affected by coronavirus, 20 thousand died from coronavirus is not a terrible number.

So, chief scientific Advisor to the government Patrick Vallance, speaking in Parliament at a meeting of the Committee on health, said that the statistics of deaths from coronavirus will be superimposed on the overall statistics of expected deaths, reports the BBC. According to him, every year from ordinary flu in Britain killed about 8,000 people.

According to Saturday, March 28 in the UK from the coronavirus died 759 people, the total number of infected was 15 thousand people. Among the infected – the Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the Minister, Matt Hancock, Prince Charles.

Outlook: worst case scenario – up to 200 thousand dead in the summer, the best – 80 thousand

the Number of infected by the coronavirus in the United States, the morning of Saturday, March 28 reached 105 thousand people, and died from the coronavirus around 1500.

America now ranks first in the world in the number of infected COVID-19. Because of the pandemic of coronavirus in the country introduced a state of emergency. On March 27, the President of Donald trump has announced the allocation of $2.2 trillion to support the us economy in terms of coronavirus. It is the largest in U.S. history program help the economy.

But scientists warned, the moment could be lost – for too long the government has not taken tough measures to slow the spread of the coronavirus.

Two weeks ago, when the numbers infected in the United States were not so frightening, the newspaper the New York Times wrote that in the US a new type of coronavirus can die up to 1.7 million Americans. This is the worst case scenario. If, however, they adopted restrictive measures, the number of deaths could be reduced to 150-200 thousand.

These figures were given to the employees of the Centers for control and prevention of diseases of the USA and experts on epidemic diseases from different universities, modeled several scenarios, based on the characteristics of the virus, its rate of spread and how serious would the government have introduced restrictive measures.

According to these projections, during the year, the coronavirus can be infected in the United States to 214 million people. 21 million of them will need to be hospitalized, thatwill Dorset national health care system. In the US there are only 925 thousand equipped hospital beds and of these only about 90 thousand intended for patients in critical condition.

However, at the moment introduced a state of emergency has somewhat changed these forecasts in a better way.

according to Reuters, now the potential number of deaths from the coronavirus in the United States may vary in wide limits: from 38 000 to 162 000 dead by the summer of 2020.

According to research by the Medical school of Washington University, the pandemic may subside in early June. But by this time the number of hospitalized patients has long been peaking at the national level. Therefore, many infected will continue to die and in June and July.

For example, in California, the virus is spreading more slowly. This means that the peak of infections and deaths there will be in April, and therefore quarantine measures have to renew in this state.

Forecasts in Russia: worst – case scenario is classified, and best – mystery

In Russia the number of new cases of coronavirus Saturday, March 28, amounted to 1264 (+228 per day). Most cases are still in Moscow – 817 infected, four died.

President Vladimir Putin has said that to win the coronavirus in Russia will be faster than three months. But such a statement is nothing more than a misrepresentation. This is only a partial truth, as in the summer months, indeed, the spread of viral infections is weakened. However, this does not mean that the coronavirus defeated. This is only a seasonal attenuation of the epidemic.

New coronavirus can’t be beaten completely. As says a Professor at the University of Queensland Ian McKay, specializing in Virology, they will overcome everything in the world. COVID-19 will be the so-called endemic infection, which the man periodically faced for all hislife. This happens with the already known world coronaviruses, mainly cause a cold. The infectiousness of these viruses reaches a maximum in the winter, but catch them in the spring, summer, and fall.

So to assume that in any country of the world, particularly in Russia, the situation with COVID-19 will be different than in other parts of the world, is criminal negligence that leads to death.

Any predictions on the potential number of infected Russians in Russia is not officially published. Forecasts about the possible number of dead officially, no. On state television and in state-run media, none of the numerous experts on this topic does not apply. Officially all information about the possible number of victims of infection in Russia in advance is considered a fake and will be prosecuted by law, up to imprisonment.

But, despite this, the Russian center of the “Dossier” of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, published “analysis of the measures of the RF government anti-COVID-19”, which is named and possible deaths from the coronavirus in Russia.

In his televised address to the nation Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized that, in connection with the coronavirus, the epidemiological situation is under control of Russian authorities. He stressed that thanks to the measures taken in advance of health the spread of coronavirus infection has been slow, and the infections are primarily connected with the geographical position of Russia, which borders with the countries affected by the HIV epidemic. Immediately after Putin’s speech in the Russian media appeared information about the first two deaths from the coronavirus. This created the impression that the President lifted the veto on this subject in my speech.

Deputy Prime Minister of Russia Tatyana Golikova, head of the operational headquarters for the counter-coronavirus, said a question about flash COVID-19 in Russia “absolutely bloated story.” Government publicly referred to the panic surrounding the spread of the crownsaviruses infections of exaggerated.

But in the analytical reviews prepared for the government of the Moscow region, and allegedly at the disposal of the Centre “Dossier”, they say that the real number of infections by coronavirus infection (COVID-19) significantly higher than the official figures. Experts note that the absence of restrictive measures can lead to an exponential increase in the number of cases of coronavirus infection of the Russians.

In the review, allegedly prepared for the government of the Moscow region, are considered projections of the incidence of coronavirus in Moscow until June 10, two different scenarios – without urgent action and with the introduction of the quarantine.

the first scenario it is expected that by the end of March in Moscow and the Moscow region will be about 10 000 infected, and by mid-April almost 100,000. In early may, the epidemic may reach a peak of 2.2 million infected people (or 19% of the population), of which hospitalization will require up to 200 000 cases (despite the fact that the total number of hospital beds in Moscow is about 60 000, including other patients).

it is Expected that by may intensive care with the ventilator may be needed 50,000 people.

the Daily mortality from respiratory diseases may increase 100-300 times. A daily mortality caused by a coronavirus, at the peak of the epidemic may be about 1 000. Thus, from the coronavirus in the next two to three months may die about 30 000 people, the document says “File”. (The usual annual statistics of deaths in Moscow is about 120 000 people).

If there be introduced a rigid quarantine, the peak of the epidemic will move to the end of April, and the maximum number of infected could be reduced almost 10 times (up to 250,000). This will reduce the mortality rates by June 2020, nine times – the number of deaths in the ethe case could reach only 3,000 people, compared to 28 000 without the imposition of measures. Daily deaths from the coronavirus in the time of the peak in this case may be about 300 people a day (in the capital die every day 320-330 people, without regard to epidemics, disasters, etc.). Need a total of about 20 000 ordinary hospital beds and 5,000 resuscitation.

If not urgent restrictive measures, up to 60-70% of the population may be infected within 3-4 months, and the total deaths from the coronavirus in the country can be from 1 to 6 million people, according to the Center Profile. Hospitalization while at the same time need about 3-4 million people, despite the fact that the country has only 40 000 of the ventilator.