Especially for “the Russian newspaper” analyst CC “FINAM” Sergey Drozdov told about the main events of June and called two scenarios of the movement of the ruble:
For the Russian currency the most significant event in June – said the expert – will be the Ministerial meeting of OPEC+, which will decide about the extension signed in April agreement to reduce oil production.
But now the discontent of the market cause of Russia’s intention to begin to increase oil production from July, as envisaged in previous agreements. While most OPEC+, headed by Saudi Arabia in favour of the decision not to increase production for at least another two months.
last week, Russian energy Minister Alexander Novak discussed with the heads of major oil companies the extension of existing quotas. And according to preliminary information, the oil are unable to agree. Half of the participants advocated the extension of existing quotas, the other half against.
taking into account the industry specifics, Russian oil producers unprofitable and quite difficult to go to increase in terms of reduction of production, in connection with the forthcoming OPEC meeting+ may be no less difficult than the previous one. And to save the deal will require compromise solutions.
For the ruble in June there are two scenarios. Optimistic against the background of maintaining a positive environment on global financial and commodity markets involves breaking the level 70 and fastening in the range 67,50-71,50 against the dollar. Pessimistic, risk-based correction to a locally overheated world stock markets implies a corridor 70-73 for a dollar.