Especially for “the Russian newspaper” Sergey Drozdov, an analyst CC “FINAM”, spoke about the factors that helped the Russian currency to rise and gave a forecast for the near future.
New deal OPEC+ will keep oil prices from falling further
the Unprecedented measures, – the expert reminded, was adopted by the countries to save their economies. To do this, the markets were infused huge amounts of cash liquidity and the real sector provided the bulk aid packages the world’s largest Central banks. All this could breathe life into a depressed stock markets.
in addition, the positive sentiment at the global stock exchanges contributed data on the dynamics of cases Covid-19 in the EU and the optimism of the American authorities against the impending restart the economy.
the stabilization of the situation on world financial markets led to a gradual return of foreign funds in Russian assets, which together with sales by the Bank of Russia of foreign currency on the open market provided support to the ruble.
At this stage, the office of Elvira Nabiullina uses mainly two mechanisms. The first selling currencies at lower oil prices below the cut-off price, under the budget rule. The second – sale of foreign currency received from the national welfare Fund for the shares of Sberbank, which is activated by reducing the price of Urals oil below $ 25.
the Bank of Russia has lowered a dollar exchange rate below 75 rubles
However, the main support for the Russian currency, the rate of which in the period from 6 to 10 April showed record for the last two years strengthening against the dollar and the Euro, helped the growth of oil prices.
the Strongest reduction in global energy demand due to pandemic coronavirus and a price war waged by Saudi Arabia, has led to falling prices on black gold below 22 dollars for barrel that put in the extremely difficult situation of the global oil industry. And later forced the largest oil producers to sit down at the negotiating table.
According to preliminary results of the past in a mode of videoconferences of OPEC summits and energy Ministers of the group of twenty, NATO countries are ready to reduce oil production in may-June at 10 million barrels a day, followed by its decrease to 8 million in July-December, and 6 million in January-April of 2021.
Independent producers, including the US, Canada and Norway is expected to reduce production by 5 million barrels. The total reduction of oil production in may-June should be 15 million barrels per day.
And although at this stage the announced volumes do not fully block the excess raw materials, formed on the world market, coordinated action by the stakeholders to stabilize oil prices. This, in turn, will support the ruble exchange rate is in the upcoming week will be in the range of 72-75 against the dollar and 79 to 82 against the Euro.