The range of fluctuations of the ruble at the end of March

– Prospects of the ruble in the week was laid by the dramatic events of the middle of the month, but on Friday the situation has changed a bit.

Photo: iStock Belousov predicted the rise in oil prices to $ 35 per barrel

In the period of turbulence on financial markets, the rate of our currency especially depends not so much on internal drivers, and the degree of anti-risk sentiment due to coronavirus and is largely determined by their prices of energy.

Quotes of Brent crude oil in the week fell below key technical and psychological level of $ 25 per barrel. After that the ruble “could not stand”, the dollar has shot up almost 82 rubles, and Euro to 89.5 per ruble.

But at the end of the week, oil and ruble appeared important counterarguments. Central Bank of Russia took a decision on additional sale of foreign currency from the national welfare Fund (NWF), with a decrease in the price of Urals oil below $ 25 per barrel. In addition, the Central Bank gave the market its tranquillity, without changing 20 March key interest rate, leaving it at the level of 6 percent.

Its decline could further stimulate the inflow of money into the financial system that would push inflation and depreciation. A rise – could be perceived by the market as uncertainty of the Central Bank in keeping the situation after a sharp weakening of the ruble. In addition, this would complicate the conditions for business, making loans more expensive, so, in a difficult situation. Therefore, an informed decision of the Central Bank supported the Russian currency.

in Addition, positive made the unexpected intervention of Donald trump. He announced that he will negotiate and use the methods of diplomatic pressure on exporting countries to encourage them to abandon excess production of oil. As a result, the Brent price rose in the range of 27-31 dollar.

Photo: iStock terms of complete recovery of the foreign exchange market

the ruble, after some hesitation, they are balanced in the area of 79 rubles to the dollar and 85 rubles per Euro.

Prospects for next week depend on the unpredictable vicissitudes of the development of all these contradictory factors. Very important scheduled events Monday 23 March and a happy week in General do not carry. Relatively important may be the publication of data on oil reserves in the United States on Wednesday, March 25.

now, However, on emotional market can influence it sudden, unpredictable factors. Therefore, the most likely amplitude changes in prices of oil for the upcoming week is quite wide – from 25 to 32 dollars per barrel of Brent.

In turn, the actual range of fluctuation of the ruble in the week is also significant: 75-82 rubles per dollar and 80-89 rubles per Euro.