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A group of international scientists have predicted the population growth in the world, will have a peak in 2064, the company will decrease to 8.8 billion by the year 2100, from the data of an article published in the Lancet.

It is noted that the population by the beginning of XXII century in this forecast two billion less than the UN forecast.

“the Improvement in access to modern contraceptives and education of girls and women lead to widespread and sustained decline in the birth rate,” say scientists.

According to the article, the first five countries with the largest number of population by the year 2100 will be India, Nigeria, China, USA and Pakistan. Researchers at the Institute for metrics and evaluation of health (IHME) at the Medical school of the University of Washington calculated that by the year 2100 183 out of 195 countries have reached total fertility rate.

This figure represents the average number of children a woman gave birth to during her life. According to forecasts, the fertility rate is below replacement level, equal to 2.1 births per woman. This means that in these countries the population will decrease if immigration compensates for the low birth rate.

In addition, more than 20 countries, including Japan, Thailand, Italy and Spain, to the 2100-th population will be reduced by more than 50 percent. While China’s population will decrease by 48 percent.

The study also predicts a huge shift in global age structure. So, it is estimated that in 2100 the world will be 2.37 billion people over the age of 65 and 1.7 billion under the age of 20 years.

“the Continued global population growth for a century is no longer the most likely trajectory for the population of the world,” said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray, who led the study.

Earlier, the United Nations (UN) presented a forecast that by the end of the century the world will be around 11 billion people. It was noted that India already by 2027 China will surpass the number living in the country.