The Federal Treasury threatens not only cheap oil

How many will lose the Russian budget with the decrease in average oil prices to $30, $20, $10 and even up to $1 per barrel? In the first case — 2.5 trillion rubles, the second — almost $ 3 trillion, the third — 4.7 trillion. But in the fourth — only 2 trillion: the amount of shortfall of funds in such extreme scenarios will be offset by the imminent collapse of the domestic currency to 110 rubles per dollar, calculated specialists of REU them. G. V. Plekhanov. In their study refers, roughly speaking, a component of oil and gas revenues. But as the current pandemic crisis will affect another major share of revenues to the Federal Treasury — oil and gas?

In September last year, the Finance Ministry reported that the share of oil revenues will decline from 40.8% in 2019 to 35% in 2022. To her, the Agency considers revenues from tax on mineral extraction (met) for oil and gas, export duties on energy products and tax on additional income from hydrocarbon production (PDM), which is used to separate the fields.

In General, under the then Ministry of Finance in the coming years total (commodities and non-oil) budget revenues in absolute terms will rise from 20.2 trillion rubles in 2019 to 20.4 trillion in 2020 and 21.2 trillion in 2021-m and 22.1 trillion in 2022-m. Today, in the new economic (and not only) reality, these figures lose all meaning.

Since the Russian budget is tied to world prices on energy resources. This “umbilical cord” holding back the modernization of the economy. According to a leading expert of the Center for political technology Nikita Maslennikov March-April oil shock gives us the historical uncontested chance to finally engage in structural adjustment, to move to a new economic model. This opportunity should not be missed. Especially at year-end oil and gas revenues will fall at least twice, if not more.

“But the share of non-oil may increase by 5-10 percentage points, says Maslennikov. — That is, the structure will happen some redistribution, but the problem I see in the other — sharp, about a quarter the decrease of budget revenues. If in 2019 it was 20.2 trillion rubles, that in this, accordingly, will be about 15 trillion. Here it is necessary also to take into account the tax expenses deferred installments. Plus insurance premiums: if you do not collect them in the proper amount, you will have to increase the budget deficit”.

As explained by the Deputy head of IAC “Alpari” Natalia Milchakova, more than a third of non-oil revenues generated by value added tax (VAT) on goods and services produced in Russia, a few less due to VAT on imported goods. This should add the effect of the VAT increase in 2019 by 2 percentage points in almost all groups of goods also subject to VAT at a reduced rate. Given that the share of tax on profit of enterprises in the total mass of non-oil income is only 8%, the state could afford to temporarily sacrifice some part of them, thereby rendering indirect support to the affected business. Excise taxes on domestic goods increase, as a rule, from 1 January, respectively, this fiscal revenue had nothing to fear, they do not lose anything.

because of the crisis and non-APR can decrease the volume of imports of certain categories of goods, mainly non-food, says the expert. This means that the Federal Treasury will receive less revenue from VAT and excise duties on imported products, and customs tariffs. But this situation will not last long and will affect the total volume of non-oil and gas budget revenues, most likely, only to the end of the first half. In General, Milchakova believes, is significant, and the more dramatic their loss should not wait; 2020 Russia will have completed with the budget deficit 1% of GDP.

If, as many analysts predict, the GDP will lose about 7-10%, this means that will drop all non-oil revenues, says the head of the structural research Center of Russian Academy of Alexey Vedev. According to him, the expected budget deficit to 5 trillion rubles this outcome is quite real.