From may 1, entered into force a new agreement, OPEC+ on the limitation of oil production. The deal involves a reduction in the production of almost 10 million barrels per day for two months. We found out from the experts what will happen to oil prices in the coming months and what the future holds for the Russian ruble, the exchange rate which again varies synchronously with the barrel.
Artem Deev, head of the analytical Department AMarkets: “Oil prices may 1, rising on positive news about production cuts. But countries reduce output too little — only 9.7 million barrels per day, at that time, as the cumulative consumption in the period of the pandemic had declined by 30-35%.
Extra 20 million barrels per day put pressure on price and do not allow it to grow. Therefore, the future reduction is only slightly postpone the time when all the stores will be filled and the oil is nowhere to go.
When the excess exceeds the available limits, you will see a drop in prices to negative values, as has happened to the WTI of 20 to 21 April. In may, the price of us crude will stay in the neighborhood of $17-20, and the price of Brent will not exceed $25 per barrel. Drivers for the rising cost of fuel there.
the Situation is only getting worse as soon as the end of the vault. Now at coast of the US and in EU waters is 30 large oil tankers that can’t unload.
as for the ruble, the sharp decline in oil prices will certainly hurt the national currency, and despite strong policy support by the Bank of Russia, in the near future the value of the dollar can reach 80-82 rubles.”
Timur Nigmatullin, the investment Manager of the company “Opening Broker”: “the Fall in oil prices that we saw last few months, was connected with the speculative and panic on commodity exchanges. Quotations and their evaluation is an extremely delicate matter. Transactions at negative prices of WTI, reaching minus $40 per barrel, occurred as the “nearby futures”. This raw material must be supplied in a relatively short time – just in may. Because prospective purchasers as a result of falling demand was abandoned transactions, suppliers have become nowhere to store raw materials and traders frantically sold it at a loss.
you can Expect a quick impact from the decline in oil production is not necessary. The main question — when it will restore the demand for raw materials. Maybe it will happen only by the end of the year. It is already clear that the transaction in the second half of the summer is at a price of $40 and even $50 per barrel.
However, the average fair price at which to sell the barrel currently is $40. What we see now in commodity markets is speculative excitement, usually occurring in the Fi��anisovogo crisis. It is associated with a sudden overflow of oil storage facilities and difficult access to suppliers. Therefore, in may the price of a barrel could fall again to negative values.
the Value of the Russian currency is conceptually not tied to oil quotations. Central Bank adheres to a fiscal rule: when oil is more expensive is $42.5 per barrel, the regulator buys on the market dollars, putting them in the reserves; when the rate of the us currency is cheaper — the Bank of Russia sells currency. Now, nothing has changed.
it is Necessary to emphasize that in April, when oil prices fell to negative values, quotes of the ruble have already sailed on reached by the time the mark in the area 73-75 rubles.
the New agreement, OPEC+, suggesting the decline in production, little impact on the final quotes of the Russian currency. Possibly in may and will happen for some exchange differences. The cost of “green” in this case, it can go up to 80-82 rubles. However, in the budgetary rules investors would not be profitable to buy the dollar at this rate. Market players will begin to contribute to the reduction of currency exchange rates and by year-end, the value of the “dollar” is unlikely to exceed 70 rubles.”
Natalia MILCHAKOVA, Deputy head of information-analytical center “Alpari”: “the growth of oil prices, taking into account production cuts from OPEC in the format+ is more likely than a collapse. But the explosive “rally” is also expected, as demand remains low and oversupply will persist.
Saudi Arabia reported an increase in oil production in April to a record level of 11.3 million barrels per day. Now its tankers filled with cheap oil, are in the California ports, and nobody unloads American consumers there is no demand. His absence could have a negative pressure on the price of oil not only in may but also the end of the second quarter. First, it will feel the American grades of oil, including WTI.
In may, the Brent price can range within $23-33 per barrel, but can increase to $35-36 a barrel, when the first information about the real production cuts OPEC+. Short-term support to oil prices can provide data on the reduction of oil production by the American lancelike and producing countries, non-OPEC format+.
On the exchange rate at this time will affect not only the prices of “black gold”, but also other factors: sales of foreign currency by the Central Bank, and macroeconomic statistics — inflation, unemployment, GDP estimate for the first quarter, industrial production in April, news of a gradual lifting of restrictions associated with the regime of self-isolation, and the beginning of recovery for the industry and services that will be possible in the middle or third week of may.
Dollar in may, taking into account different scenarios of development of the situation in the economy will be in the wide corridor — 71-80 rubles, and the Euro in the range of 75-88 in rubles per Euro. In any case, the strong volatility in the ruble may not be avoided.”
