What are the main criteria will influence the value of the Russian currency in the coming months? What factors can lead to the fall of the ruble to record lows, and some of them will allow the “wood” to strengthen to the highest values lately? And most importantly: if the average Russian citizen is in the presence of a certain amount how to dispose of these assets: stock up on dollars or euros or to spend the savings on a summer vacation. Perhaps the advice of experts “MK” will allow our readers to determine the final choice.
Artem Deev, head of the analytical Department AMarkets, argues that in the near future, as before, the ruble will be more likely to influence oil prices and General market sentiment. “The key factor is the pandemic coronavirus. More fears are growing that a new outbreak in Europe, the USA, Brazil and other countries is the second wave, which may lead to new restrictions on economic activity. If it happens, will inevitably reduce the demand for resources, and oil prices will begin to decline. This leads to the fact that the rate of “wood” will continue to decline and soon may reach elevations of 73-75 rubles per dollar and 82-84 of ruble per Euro. The strengthening of the national currency possible with a sharp recovery of the global economy, which will increase the demand for oil. However, there is no such prospects. The energy Ministry predicts that above $50 per barrel oil before the end of this year will not rise.”
In a crisis situation, when there is danger of job loss or reduction of income, extra spending on vacation or a major purchase is not justified. No wonder the Russians during the isolation, develop a different standard of behaviour from consumer models went to savings. As a tool to save money from devaluation remains highly rated us dollars, euros, Swiss franc and Japanese yen. It is also worth to consider buying small coins of gold and silver. In any case, to save funds is to create a multi-currency basket: the part of the store in rubles, partly in currency, partly in precious metals”.
Dmitry Babin, an expert on the stock market, “BCS”, argues that the main factor of increase or decrease of the Russian currency will be the movement of global capital: “After the markets had gone the panic caused by the global pandemic coronavirus, as the world’s Central banks launched unprecedented measures to deal with its consequences, Russian stocks look attractive and contributed to the strengthening of the Russian currency”.
However, in June the Bank of Russia lowered the key rate to a record low of 4.5%. Domestic debt securities are ODAedeleny risk for a return of international buyers. In case of deterioration of situation on world markets, which will occur due to the probable second wave of the global pandemic, foreign investors will sell out of Russian government bonds and trigger a more rapid depreciation of the ruble.
If the global economic crisis will be deeper and more protracted, the oil price falls to $15. In such conditions, the Russian currency risk update historical lows and fall to 86 per dollar.
For ordinary Russians currently accumulated savings if the savings are long-term, it is better to convert to equal shares in dollars and euros
Yuri Mazur, head of data analysis Department CEX.IO Broker, says that the Russian ruble at the moment is under the influence of three factors: “one is the oil market. Investors can’t calculate the consequences of increasing OPEC production+ in late summer, when the parties to the agreement on the limitation of production of “black gold” can increase production “black gold”. The second factor concerns the second of the outbreak of coronavirus capable of causing more significant damage to the global economy and greatly affect the demand of energy. The third factor is the referendum on amendments to the Constitution of Russia. The “wood” on the eve of important political events tend to decline in value, so the rate will remain in the area of 70 to 72 rubles per dollar. Negativity can add a collapse of quotations of oil or re-outbreak of coronavirus in the United States and Europe. While the market is extremely volatile, so no need to make hasty decisions. Citizens best to wait for developments, as the quotes of the ruble, as a rule, react with a certain delay on the dynamics of the energy market”.