the Armenian-Azerbaijani border is tense again. Both countries blame each other. Azerbaijan on Sunday announced losses as a result of the fire from the Armenian side killed three soldiers. In a Monday night armed clashes continued. Azerbaijan army announced the destruction of the Armenian reference point under the Incentive. The fire was from artillery and tanks. Allegedly there are casualties among the Armenian military. Killed the Azerbaijani soldier. Can these clashes vylitsya in a large-scale war? Whether Russia is able to influence the peaceful resolution of the conflict, or it is left there for leverage? With these questions, “MK” reached out to military experts and analysts.
According to analysts, in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict in the post-Soviet space lasts for more than one decade, Russia is in a rather difficult position. Especially in recent years.
it is Clear that on the one hand, Armenia is Russia’s important strategic ally and a member of the Organization of collective security Treaty (CSTO). But on the other hand Yerevan recently began to afford ambiguous statements, in particular, of the “European choice”, despite the fact that, like Belarus, is very dependent on ekonomicheskoi the help of Russia.
At the same time Azerbaijan is not a CSTO member does not seek in the European structures and not trying to become a member of NATO, such as Ukraine. On the contrary, is pursuing a more robust policy towards Russia.
on top of that Baku still pays huge money for Russian weapons, becoming for Russia an increasingly attractive partner. Therefore, in the language of financiers, Armenia is increasingly becoming for Russia into a passive, and Azerbaijan – into an asset.
as for the frozen Armenian-Azerbaijani military conflict over Karabakh issue, Russia here is a very delicate situation. In fact, both sides are fighting each other Russian weapons.
the Situation commented, “MK” one of the authors is known to the expert report of the “Allies”, the Director of the Center for analysis of strategies and technologies Ruslan Pukhov:
that is really happening on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border is not known to anyone, because information is distorted by both sides. I can only note that all previously known formula that the Armenians of Karabakh won the war training, cohesion and spirit, now faded into the background. Their advantage as a military training and weapons somewhere in the beginning of the last decade slowly but surely evened out. At the same time increasing the advantage of Azerbaijan in the equipment of the troops, improving the quality of military training. Itwhen Baku began to actively invest in the purchase of weapons abroad.
a test on the balance of military forces in the region was a serious clash on the line of contact in Nagorno-Karabakh in April 2016, known as the “four-day war”. Then both sides have suffered serious losses after application of artillery and aviation.
After that, the Armenian military began actively to invest in military infrastructure and the purchase of weapons, primarily in Russia. The Armenians are lately seriously caught up in military-technical terms. The recent procurement of su-30, air defense systems “Thor” and before that Russian “Iskander” was to demonstrate to Azerbaijan that their army is strong not only in spirit, but also technique.
So it is obvious: the situation in the conflict area formed a stalemate – nobody can win a military victory, but because I think none of the parties is not interested in fanning the conflict.
But most importantly, the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict is one of the few situations in the post-Soviet space, where the positions of Russia and the West. And the West as a European in the European Union and the United States. One of the most powerful international players are not interested in the fact that there flared.
the Azerbaijanis And the Armenians are aware that external players, including Russia, here solidaritywith and will not allow incitement to something more than such border incidents.