The disease is on the decline: the panic caused by the coronavirus stronger

His confidence is based on the statistics, every day in the world is diagnosed with coronavirus less than what is recovering.

— In principle in my calculations there is nothing sensational, says Herman. — Who this model: if sick again today, less people than yesterday — well, if on the contrary — bad. As of March 1, the total number of infected — 87 thousand people, of them recovered 500 42, died almost 3 thousand. If we subtract from the total number of those infected who have recovered or died, just today there are 41.5 thousand infected. If this continues in the future, in about a month, patients will remain. Because, let’s say, 20 February the total number infected was about 76,000, of which approximately 18 000 recovered and more than 2,000 died, patients were a little less than 56 000. And on February 17 in the world has more than 73 000 patients, 12 recovered 500 and about 1800 dead, that is, the number of infected people was approximately 58 800 people.

up To this point since January, was another trend — the number of patients currently every day grew. And since it’s daily crashes.

photos: Andrew Arakcheev

— publish But then basically a constantly growing graphics the overall number of infections, including recovered and dead.

And that’s not right. By the way, according to this model, the turning point in China happened on January 26. That is, they felt that on January 26, the rate of growth in the number of cases began to slow, and I found worldwide from the 17th of February, the growth stopped and the decline began.

But if you take away Europe, there is now a slightly different situation…

— True, this China chart ill bent, and schedule recovered soared. And in Europe, while the opposite is true — the schedule of cases soared, and the graphics recovered while virtually none. But POSCOaddition, in China more people then its positive trend outweighs the negative European overall. So China, looking at their schedules, says that all is well, and the Europeans are looking at their soaring, saying that everything is bad. But, I think if China did it, why Europe can not cope… by the Way, if you look at other who data shows that also decreases the lethality of the disease (number of deaths from the total number of cases), reduced epidemiological curve is the number of people infected from a single infected. Well, the absolute number of cases is growing slower.