The Bank of Russia has presented three scenarios for the development of the country’s economy, which are an alternative to the basic scenario. This is stated in the draft of the main directions of the monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation until 2024.
Recall that in the main scenario, the regulator expects progressive growth of the global and Russian economies, as well as an improvement in the epidemic situation.
But the first alternative scenario is unfolding against the backdrop of an increasing pandemic. In it, the growth rate of Russia’s GDP in 2022 will be close to zero, in 2023 it will accelerate to 3.5-4.5 percent, and by 2024 it will return to the indicators of potential growth.
In the second scenario, called “global inflation”, economic growth is expected to intensify. “The increased level of global inflation and global interest rates will require the Bank of Russia to conduct a tougher PREP than in the baseline scenario to return inflation to the target in the second half of the forecast period,” the report says.
In the third scenario, a financial crisis is expected. Due to the pandemic, there will be risks of a significant increase in the debt burden in the global economy. This will worsen its condition, which will lead to a drop in Russia’s GDP in 2023. But in 2024, the situation will begin to improve.