The analyst Kirill Koktysh we Have a sufficient margin of safety

Kirill, curious how You manage to survive the quarantine and the isolation?

Kirill Koktysh: Experienced with half of the family in the Russian province in Valdai, the second half of the family in Belarus, are in constant communication. Online lectures and seminars with students, all the classes we are going according to schedule.

How easy do you think we will have to come from our current virtual space in the bustle of the city?

Kirill Koktysh: Easy or not, but will have to return. As a high school teacher, traditionally growing the elite, I understand that in otherwise rigid social segmentation – those who can afford a traditional education, and all the rest. After all, the educational process is the assimilation of knowledge, not information, which is obtained when there is co-creation between teacher and students. Knowledge transfer is exclusively a living thing that requires master and apprentice: in textbooks you can find the answer to the question “what” but the teacher gives the answer to the question “how”. All of this requires a relationship of trust that online to build the impossible. Because of this, and there is a risk of a divide between erudition and education. Thus we leave out this absolutely critical functionality of a full-time higher education, the impossible online, like the appearance of the students in the learning process of their own social networks, without which they simply can not build their future professional life and career. In General, with all its advantages, the online mode does not replace the real. And return to reality everyone will be happy.

…and life will return to normal? Or…

Kirill Koktysh: for Example, China accommodation in a similar situation have been greatly enhanced and enriched – and it’s about the experience, which received both the society and the state, having as additional and Internet measurement. We have, I think, has a chance to pass this way so successfully. However, you can still questions that today it is difficult to give answers, the main of which is the question “when?”. For students unclear situation with the unified state exam, and an introductory campaign in higher education institutions, for students, with a session for graduates with shields. All timelines can go, and it is clear that “as usual” will not succeed, the answers will be according to the situation. In addition, you need to remember that more awaits us is long, most likely, economic depression, the reproduction of the global economy will be called into question. And it is not necessary to be optimist or pessimist, to understand it.

have Done business coronavirus…

Kirill Koktysh: the fact that the coronavirus is not simple.tsya the cause of the economic crisis: the world is stood on its threshold, and the onset it was a matter of time. The pandemic accelerated the advent of this crisis, and in some cases gave the opportunity for him to write off the same logic that the “fog of war”. The globalist capitalist economic model has exhausted itself, and the alternative will be either negabarita or non-capitalist. The world can either be split into macro regions, e.g. conditional conditional BRICS and the West – or even go to construction, which will be based on the dominance of capital.


Kirill Koktysh: This is where the financial capital has not disappeared, but the value is not already such, to determine the rules and system of values. At least at the initial stage will be to set state. Without going into details, just note that in the second case, we get a more left system of values, more social, where the concept of justice is clearly more important than the concept of freedom.

the term “States island”, that is, completely separate from each other…

Kirill Koktysh: It is possible, but only for the period of survival. One of the founding fathers of the USA Alexander Hamilton felt, though not formulated definitively, that the size of the market matters. A large market means not only to produce but also to recoup technologically complicated things, and the small means of technological dependence on external donor. In today’s reality the self-sufficiency begins with the division of labor by about 300 million people. In this respect, we can easily distinguish on the globe four or five potential macro-region, meet this criterion.

You predicted a long economic depression. In this sense, expects a Russian-Belarusian relations? If there is enough margin of safety in our Union?

Kirill Koktysh: it all depends on the level of mutual trust. If any problems are resolved.

What problems do You see here?

Kirill Koktysh: Let’s see. Basic agreement on key issues is reached, but they are short-term. For example, oil is only agreed for one month. Sharp enough remains political rhetoric. Although it is clear that what is happening between Belarus and Russia fits into the paradigm of bargaining, the bargaining is markedly delayed, to the detriment of mutual trust. And its deficiency is, in turn, has slowed quite a mutually important projects. Therefore, it is very important that Minsk and Moscow were able to restore a functional level of trust by putting everything in place. Yes, this has happened many times, and each time it became clear that the spheres in which Russia and Belarus m��gut to be helpful to each other, a lot. If you trust all of the mechanisms begin to work properly, and the Federal government then it reveals its very considerable potential. Conversely, when tightening political bargaining everything is stopped.

Probably everything You said applies to the Eurasian Union?

Kirill Koktysh: of Course. The presence of trust between States and ensure that the joint goal can be achieved the best way, saving efforts and resources. The absence of it leads to the fact that every transaction becomes insanely expensive and ultimately uncompetitive.

As people on both sides of the Russian-Belarusian border perceive knocking on the world to attack?

Kirill Koktysh: people are the same everywhere. In Russia and Belarus people wait out this unpleasant situation. It is not a strategy, but simply adapting to challenges. People hope that all this will end soon, but alas, no one can look into the future and know exactly when it will occur.

do you think that the governments of Russia and Belarus already thinking about how to facilitate the citizens of the Union state out of the crisis with the least losses?

Kirill Koktysh: according to official rhetoric, while all States ‘ efforts aimed at solving all problems. Russia and Belarus is no exception and at this stage come from finding your balance between the health of citizens and the economy, sometimes very different setting priorities. So, for example, the United States has gone on record investment in the economy in the amount of six trillion dollars, more than a quarter of the us debt. But even that doesn’t guarantee anything. So, if trump guessed it, the pandemic will decline and will increase consumer optimism, he wins, and the States will again become a great country, however, largely at the expense of everyone else. But if not, then the US may enter into a spiral of stagflation, with an uncertain outcome. In Russia, the priority has been the protection of the health of the population and the expectation that reserves will allow you to wait out the pandemic and to restart the economy. In Belarus, the prevailing expectation is that coronavirus will be a problem not so serious. Significantly, at this stage we cannot categorize any strategy as successful or not, and yet doomed to be observers – the picture will become clear later. It is obvious that any strategy in any country most affected will be the services sector: it cannot move to online, the Internet is the Barber not to go. The loss here will be the most significant, and the recovery of this sector will be probably one of the first challenges to overcome which will begin postcoronary era.

This is the extended version of the text published in the “Union”