the Agency does not expect growth in oil demand, on the contrary, it predicted its decline for the year to 9.3 million barrels per day, but believes that if the largest consumers of “black gold” will take advantage of its low prices and will purchase record levels for strategic reserves, will be able to remove the excess supply from the market.
the Total reduction of production of all oil producing countries, according to the head of the energy Ministry of Russia Alexander Novak, will be in may-June 15-20 million barrels a day. This corresponds to the assessments of the current excess of supply over demand. The problem is that by may, the surplus of oil on the market will increase to 25 million barrels per day, and the maximum value of the surplus of supply over demand in the first half of the year may reach 35 million barrels per day.
In this situation, the OPEC deal+ with all its advantages and positive impact on the oil market, is not able alone to balance it, at least until the end of 2020. In this case, all possible assistance to the OPEC+ can provide the purchase of surplus oil in the strategic storage.
we Already know that USA, China, India and Korea are considering various options for procurement of additional reserve volumes of oil. Their interest is far from altruistic and pragmatic, as transactions will be made at the lowest possible prices on “black gold”. But it will allow to remove from the market at least a portion of the excess oil, even though four very large consumers of oil, will not solve the problem.
“an Additional volume of strategic reserves requires scarce at present, storage capacities”, – said the head of the international practice group of KPMG for the provision of services to the oil and gas sector companies Anton Usov. He noted that the largest consumer of oil in the world – the United States, was planned, but has not allocated the required first tranche of $ 3 billion for the purchase of up to 77 million barrels of oil into the state reserve. Similar plans China, which also announced the purchase of up to 90 or even 180 days of net import volume of oil in strategic reserves. They are estimated at 80-100 million barrels. But these are only plans, not the case.
At the moment, the free storage capacity of the oil countries of the Organization for economic cooperation and development (OECD) account for about 1-1. 5 billion barrels. This will last around a month and a half of regular procurement. The purchase in the next 3 months an additional 200 million barrels in strategic reserves, would reduce the supply of oil on the market on 2 million barrels a day, the report says the IEA. By simple mathematical calculations, you can understand that to eliminate the excess supply of 10 million barrels per day is expected, assuming that all countries involved in the transaction will be strictly follow its mandatoryilstam, strategic purchasing needs to be 1 billion barrels. This is hardly achievable figure.
“the Actual implementation of large purchases could provide support to demand, but a significant effect can be expected, as it is still not kompensiruet global decline in consumption,” said Anton Usov.
