According to the NRF, tax revenues declined in April by nearly a third. The total amount of the shortfall of budget funds in just one month amounted to 1.7 trillion rubles. But, judging by the course of events, this month – not the last, that the economy will have to lie on your side. How serious was the gap in the budget, and whether the power it painless to plug? With this question we turned to the experts.
Total tax revenues fell in April by 31.4% to 1.7 trillion rubles, 775 billion rubles less than it was in April 2019.
In particular, revenues from the severance tax has declined by more than 50% (up to 270 billion) from income tax – 41% (up to 438 billion), and VAT – 27% (up to 220 billion rubles). Taxes on income of individuals decreased by 14.1%. In addition, the retail market is more than 36% of companies, and revenues of the business declined by 25% – these data led the head of the Federal tax service of Daniil Egorov.
However, according to the official, there is good news: affected by the quarantine measures, businesses got a reprieve on taxes and subsidies on wages. For them suspended inspection and bankruptcy proceedings, and for 1.5 million small and medium enterprises terms of payment of taxes is postponed to the end of 2020. All automatically granted deferments for these entrepreneurs to 217 billion rubles. According to estimates Egorova, such assistance will address a minimum of 50 thousand companies. Of these, about 73% of the carriers, 18% belong to the sphere of public catering, 7% – to the sector of physical culture and sports.
How to evaluate such a sharp decline in tax revenues to the Treasury? “If the Egorov tax figures for April to project from the Federal budget, and in annual terms, it is scary, – said the Director of the Institute of strategic analysis FBK, doctor of economic Sciences Igor Nikolaev. We have a huge shortfall in taxes, and this difficult situation will certainly last for many months.”
everything else, the expert said, in may Russian oil industry is obliged to sharply cut production in accordance with the international Treaty OPEC+, signed by our country in April. Considering also that before oil prices collapsed, the state Treasury may, at the end of the year gleaning oil revenues amounting to about 6 trillion rubles. Without this money not to fulfill budgetary obligations, and the loss of revenue from oil industry will have to compensate.
And if you remember the planned anti-crisis measures, you will need to find another couple of trillion. However, reminds the interlocutor of “MK”, we have the national welfare Fund, the liquidity of which is 11 trillion. “A year and a half of these funds will be enough. But 2024 is not exactly going to make it, although the Minister of Finance Siluanov convinced of the opposite,” – said Nikolaev.
For panic, no reason: in the third quarter we can expect a V-shaped recovery of the world economy, then higher oil prices, Express a different point of view, the head of IAC “Alpari” Alexander Razuvaev.
as for low tax revenues, to compensate these losses by introducing new taxes, the government will not. This is clearly stated Siluanov. The recent tax on Bank interest – exception to the rule. However, the government can strengthen the fight with gray salaries and incomes from the informal rental housing. And, of course, the budget deficit will not be financed due to loans of the Central Bank (read: printing press).
In the 90s it was common practice that eventually led to hyperinflation. Then so did almost all the former Soviet republics. Today, however, it is prohibited by law. Therefore, according to Razuvaev, money Russians don’t need to worry about banking the money is not thrown to plugging budget holes.
