MOSCOW, may 11 — RIA Novosti. Scientists from Singapore University of technology and design announced that their predictions about the end of the pandemic coronavirus in different countries is no longer relevant due the fast-paced environment, removed all the graphics from the site and suggested to look at models from other research centres.
the Experts studied data on 131 countries. Projection was used, in particular, SIR model — mathematical model of infection, which describes the dynamics of the susceptible, infected and recovered.
the authors of the study stated that any forecasts should be treated with caution, and warned about the dangers of “excessive optimism”. So, until may 6, the Singapore scientists have speculated that the outbreak of a novel coronavirus in Russia should end on 17 August, then they moved the deadline to August 24, and may 7, moved it to September 8.
“the Previous forecasts are no longer valid, because the development options of the situation in the real world are changing rapidly,” — said in a statement on the website of the University to monitor the situation with COVID.
“Traditional efforts to prediction or forecasting, the purpose of which is to now to make an accurate prediction that will come true in the future, may be misleading in conditions of extreme uncertainty” — said the experts.
the world health organization on 11 March announced the outbreak of a new coronavirus infection COVID-19 pandemic. According to the latest world health organization, worldwide there were more than 3.9 million cases, more than 274 thousand people died.
