Russians faces a hidden problem: vacation credit will not save

Crisis hit primarily by the borrowers with the unsecured loans, a total of 27.5, 27.6 million people. Approximately every fifth loan is overdue, it is about 5-5,2 million customers, said Mehdiyev. If you stick to the basic forecast for the development of the situation and the vacation credit will work as expected, the number of debtors at year-end will not exceed 5.5 to 5.7 million people, said the head of NAPCA. Thus, according to him, in monetary terms, the overdue debt will not exceed 803 billion, adding a year to a maximum of 10% against a decline of 3.6% last year.

the Law on credit holidays for Russians, with payments deferred for up to six months, entered into force on 3 April. You can use it provided proven income 30% compared to the figure of 2019. The size of the loan already taken should not exceed 250 thousand rubles for consumer credits, 100 thousand rubles for credit cards, 600 thousand rubles for loans to buy a car and 1.5 million rubles for the mortgage. These strict limits do not fit a large proportion of loans that have to residents of Moscow, St. Petersburg and other cities.

According to the calculations of the joint credit Bureau (OKB), potentially under a vacation credit can get 49% of the mortgage loans, 72% of cash loans and 45% of loans. However, the reality seems somewhat different. As the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina, for the period from 20 March to 7 April banks examined 76 thousand statements of citizens about the restructuring of loans in connection with a reduction in income because of the pandemic, granted only 11 thousand (15%): 9 thousand consumer and 2,5 thousand mortgage loans.

“To the end of the year the level of overdue loans will increase twice and will reach 20%, says Chairman of the International Confederation of societies of consumers (Konfop) Dmitry Yanin. – Overall, nearly 60% of borrowers vulnerable. Most of them, and it desadi million citizens, will hardly fulfil their obligations to banks. Imposed by the authorities mechanism will only delay a total non-payment, but will not eliminate the threat.”

the Period of vacation credit will help to improve the statistics, because the population will not have to service the loans. But after six months of official reporting will deteriorate dramatically because of mass defaults in debt-ridden individuals can not be avoided, says senior analyst of “Finam” Sergey Drozdov. Someone will be left without work, someone cut down wages, and so on. Surprisingly, perplexed interlocutor of “MK” that even now banks continue to call people and offer them loans.

it is Obvious that until the resumed growth in real incomes, the problem of high debt load is not solved by tightening the requirements for borrowers, said a top Manager of IAC Alpari Andrey Loboda. On the one hand, the expert said, the Central Bank consistently enhances risk standards for banks, and at the same time, banks naked “tightening the screws” in relation to customers. That dramatically mitigate the impact from the shock of the March for people – while there is no question. Meanwhile, we stand on the threshold of an epidemic of bankruptcies of private individuals who are increasingly likely to seek the services of microfinance institutions and various loan sharks, illegal immigrants. It is expected that by the end of spring, about 10 million Russians will lose their jobs. Many of them will be unable to pay off the previously taken loan obligations. Almost 5% of the population will be in the midst of a crisis without a penny in his pocket.

at the same time Russia has accumulated huge reserves in the form of, primarily, means of Fund of national well-being; it is time to print this jug, says Loboda. The state, in turn, is in no hurry to rescue the Russians, and refrain from granting direct payments. But if the authorities are not ready at this difficult time to give to the hands of the population “live” money, as in some other countries (USA and Hong Kong Coliseum.d), would allow not to pay the banks 2-3 months “debt”, which clearly would facilitate the lives of millions of Russian families burdened with loans.