Russian gasoline has predicted a rise in price despite the collapse of oil

the price of gasoline in Russia has fallen below cost, but only in the wholesale segment. The pump price of fuel has not changed. Moreover, prices can crawl up, pulling down inflation. Gone under the skirting of oil affects the country’s revenue from energy exports. Domestic oil companies have shifted to the domestic market and want to capitalize on it. While manufacturers are pushing the tax burden to bear, which ultimately falls to consumers.

Oil companies have begun to sell gasoline at a loss, the experts found out that “Analysts commodity markets”. We are talking about vendors selling oil products at commodity exchange. Last week the price of AI-92 at the auction fell by 11%, or 4.2 thousand rubles per ton. As of April 20, ton ‘ 92 cost of 35.77 thousand rubles in the European part of Russia. As analysts found out, this is less than the actual cost of gasoline. The fact that production costs, including fuel excise, value added tax, tax on extraction of mineral resources, payments to the budget of the damping mechanism out of 38.07 thousand rubles per ton. It turns out that each ton of oil get a net loss of 2.3 thousand rubles.

causes of what is happening on the surface. The fuel is so much cheaper because demand has fallen sharply at him. Coronavirus paralyzed production and trade, cargo traffic fell. But why is the scoreboard of the gas station is not pleasing to the rare motorists fallen prices?

the Explanation is that the exchange buy petrol large consumers of agricultural enterprises and other companies who want to secure for themselves the price of futures contracts. Network of filling stations owned by major oil companies on the stock exchange of gasoline not purchased. “The exchange received only 10% of the gasoline produced by the refinery. Most gas stations are owned by large oil companies and they receive the fuel directly from its own producers at domestic prices. On the stock exchange it bought mostly independent of the network stations, but not so much”, – says chief analyst at Teletrade mark Goikhman.

Strictly speaking, the gasoline at the pump fell, but almost not noticeable. According to Thomson Reuters Kortes, last week the price of AI-92 decreased by 2 cents, or 0.5% to 42,77 rubles per liter on average in the country. Diesel fell 7 cents, to 48,14 ruble. The fact that retail fuel prices in Russia do not react to the movement of stock prices neither up nor down. The reason is the damping mechanism introduced by the authorities to stabilize fuel prices. According to him the oil companies were obliged to sell oil products to the domestic market instead of exporting, not to create a deficit, and prices at the gas station didn’t bite. If the cost of raw materials in the world above a certain point (when oil prices are high), the loss inwere they compensated by the government. If lower, on the contrary, oil companies remit the difference to the budget. Now the second case. Payments on the damper and taxes made the cost of gasoline is higher, but for consumers, the price almost fell: they compensate for the loss. Here is a “stabilization” of prices.

“it is a vicious circle. Oil companies will not lower the price of gasoline because it makes no sense to drop their profits, the state also will not reduce the tax, not to increase the budget deficit,” – says a leading analyst of the Forex Optimum Ivan kapustyasky.

moreover, retail gasoline prices may even grow. “The demand for gasoline will increase with the onset of selhoztehnika, the gradual easing of restrictions on the movement of vehicles. Fuel prices, obviously, will follow the General inflation or more to overtake her. In this case, it is likely to rise in price of gasoline by 5-10% during the year,” predicts mark in real. The damping mechanism requires that the price of AI-92 should not exceed 42 rubles per liter this year. So, gasoline has the potential for growth from the current level of prices: at least 10-15 cents per liter.