But to expect a change in the raw model of economy is not worth it.
the Crisis in the global economy, caused by a coronavirus pandemic, can only be compared with war. About it on online-summit “a Scenario of exit from COVID-crisis” initiated by the investment company A1 said the rector of Ranepa Vladimir Mau and the Director of the “Center for post-industrial studies” Vladislav Inozemtsev.
About what will happen after the crisis, “we do not know almost nothing,” he added.
the Speakers behind him, the CEO and owner of the AEON Corporation Roman Trotsenko believes that the epidemic of the coronavirus last long. A recovery of the Russian economy to pre-crisis levels will be delayed for 2-3 years. It indicates that worldwide the lifting of the lockdown is not due to the development of a vaccine against coronavirus (its not) or the acquisition of herd immunity. It is due to purely economic reasons: “whatever the explanation, it is a conscious choice — the lifting of the quarantine for the continuation of the exchange of goods”. Therefore, the removal of restrictions does not mean the end of the pandemic. On the contrary, this is only the first wave, and have at least one more, said the businessman.
it’s All about “incredible international segmentation of production”, said Trotsenko. The second factor is two-thirds of the population has no savings and live from paycheck to paycheck.
There is a popular expression — “a crisis is a time of opportunity”. Trotsenko believes that the chance to change export raw model of the Russian economy is not. Russia since the times of Boris Godunov, supplying raw materials to world markets. Only then it was furs and hemp, and now energy: “I do not believe that now something will change.”
as soon As I restored the production chain, Russia, according to Trotsenko, will return to its “rather modest place in the world.” Wait digital and technological innovations from our country is not worth it. But the shortage of capital in Russia will only grow worse. For example, he predicts that no money will remain a third of small business and 15-20% average.
the Only thing that Russia is “swing it to the next level of redistribution”. Out of gas go in the gas processing industry, in agriculture, from grain to finished products and so on: “It would be a modest but difficult task”.
Foreigners also believes that now it is necessary to talk only about the output of the economy to pre-crisis values: “Nothing new will be. All governments will invest the maximum resources in a way out [of crisis]”. He also believes that the world economy will be big changes in the next few years: “I will Recover and then we will think”.
however, he believes that the state needs now is not to accumulate reserves, as do Russia and China, and to spend as possible to overcome the effects of the crisis. More money will be spent, the faster you will be able to overcome the crisis.
Russia needs “to engage in industrialization,” agrees Foreigners Trotsenko. This will require huge investments. But where to take money?
For this we need to overcome the problem of withdrawal of capital abroad. De-offshore-isation, in his opinion, — yesterday. Russia must itself “become the production offshore”. This means that you need to cancel the income tax and increase revenues from VAT, excise taxes, and increase taxes on consumption and property: “can seize the initiative”.
Mau believes that the key challenges in postcoronary era should be to overcome poverty and build a new model of health care. The latter can become the locomotive of the economy.
Dmitry Simakov
