Russia is no longer an energy power, and gold. Such a conclusion can be drawn from the latest data of the Federal customs service relating to exports. Our gas on the European market this year proved to be extremely slow-moving goods. Only in the II quarter export “Gazprom” has decreased three times, and the price of Russian raw materials was twice below last year’s level. Foreign gold sales, Russia, in contrast, grew in April-may for the first time in history exceeded the proceeds from the sale of gas. Given the reshuffling of the foreign trade income, experts suggest the government to think about the reform of export policy of the country and search for new goods, the sale of which abroad will generate the most revenue. However, officials still continue to rely on good old oil and gas.
In the first half of this year, the Russian gas put some record-related sales in the European market. In particular, in April-may, exports of “blue fuel” has brought “Gazprom” only $2.4 billion, which is the lowest rate since 2002.
In turn, foreign supplies of Russian gold for the same two months exceeded the export of gas for the entire second quarter of this year. In total, the Russian company, according to the Bank, have implemented more than 65 tons of gold in the amount of $3.55 billion According to the head of risk assessment group sustainable development of ACRE Maxim Hudalova in the history of modern Russia this imbalance has not been observed.
“the Demand for gold is increasing worldwide due to the effects of the pandemic coronavirus and the global economic crisis — explains head of analytical Department AMarkets Artem Deev. — In addition, in the first half during the quarantine was not working most of the plants for the production of gold bars and coins, which in the global market formed a temporary shortage, and the price of precious metal went up. On the other hand, significantly decreased the export of Russian gas. In the II quarter of current year of delivery and the line decreased in 3 times in comparison with I quarter and 5 times in comparison with the volumes of 2010. Decreased and the price of Russian raw materials — it turned out to be twice lower than last year. The demand for gas is a consequence of the pandemic and warm winters, which store in Europe and Asia remain filled”.
According to experts, given the fact that the demand for commodities (oil, gas, coal, ore, timber, etc.) on the background of the global crisis may not recover for a long time, and their prices will grow very slowly in front of officials, the question of changes foreign trade policy. Therefore, in the future, the basic rate for the products, which were previously considered secondary in terms of export, can turn into a long-term trend.
Income the Russian budget for the first half year from the sale of raw materials dropped to the level of 2000. Oil and gas revenues in March-June decreased by 25-40% (depending on the month). “Against this background, of course, requires a revision of the export policy. The share of raw materials should be gradually reduced and the share of high value added products will increase. But the problem is that neither the agricultural sector nor the defence sector, giving the largest share of exports after oil and gas sector is not yet able to fully compensate for falling revenues from oil and gas exports, the proceeds of which provide more than half of the national GDP,” says the Deev.
however, experts believe that even a temporary “victory” gold over gas, not forced officials to abandon oil and gas component in favor of high-tech businesses. “The state really need to think about diversifying the industrial sector. So far all we get is the export of natural resources. Gold should also be attributed to this segment. At the same time to create something new, cost-effective and efficient is almost gone. Already in 2021 the Russian government will have to answer the question of what could be a new driver of economic growth, or at least the guarantor of economic stability. And it certainly will not oil, not gas,” says the Executive Director of venture club ITLEADERS Dmitry Ivanov.