As stated the first Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Ksenia Yudaeva, the Russian economy is “somewhat more stable than in similar emerging markets.” The data of Rosstat echo Yudayeva: industry in April fell to 6.6% in annual terms, although significantly, but significantly less than expected. All if not good, then not so bad? Try to understand.
In the old Soviet film “Aibolit-66” heroes sing the song: “It’s even good that while we are bad”. In these words there is a recognition of the greyness of the present and the ironic and sad hope not just for the future, but that it will be lighter than the gloomy present. Dialectical sort of consolation at all times.
we Now again sing the same song, focusing on the hope that she not disappeared. What kind of hope opens (or at least not closing) samosoglasovannye April?
Statistics, of course, as always, is not monotone. Manufacturing in April fell by 10%, and mining only 3.2%. This means that neither coronavirus, or even a sharp drop in oil prices, on April 20 and capsized all in the negative plane, did not change anything in the fact that the flagship of the Russian industry remains mining. With the corresponding needle, the Russian economy was not going to get off. Oil production in April and all managed to grow by 0.2%. Enjoy this resistance prevents the drastic drop in the price level.
Among the manufacturing industries have demonstrated positive dynamics. This is in addition to the production of medical equipment and medicines (expected record growth by 13.5%), work clothes and protective equipment, including personal protection, food production, as well as some petrochemical industry and metallurgy. The largest drop experienced in the manufacture of motor vehicles, here is a devastating drop — 60,2%.
what is hope? That time in April didn’t work out so catastrophically bad, as you might expect, and things will get better. The argument is, frankly, so-so. No more convincing is the opposite: if the fall was “vertical”, then the upgrade would have to wait fast and sharp.
Result: in June, fundamental changes are expected. The manufacturing industry is slightly growing, but the effect of constraints on OPEC for oil production. This is what is called the macro level. And that the level of our pockets?
In the European Union during the quarantine, the increased popularity of Bank deposits. This is despite the fact that banks in the conditions of negative rates the ECB’s interest rates on deposits paid are minimal. In Russia, on the contrary, in April, the money continued to carry in the banks, and of them. The main reason — loss of income and use of savings to cover t��kasih costs. Against this background, the second reason is the expectation of the imposition of tax on income from deposits — pales.
There is another eloquent detail: in March, as already wrote “MK”, Russia imported nearly $5 billion dollars in cash. This is an individual anti-crisis protection for the Russians, who have spare rubles. A very instructive parallel: the last time banks for a month in Russia imported more than $5 billion of cash in December 2014, and in 2015 happened the previous economic crisis. Here are the Russians hope.
