So far, the Ukraine war has only had financial consequences for Germany. We notice it in our wallets in rising prices for petrol, gas, electricity, groceries and our savings. FOCUS Online shows where the war is affecting and what the prospects are.

According to the Federal Statistical Office, prices in Germany rose by an average of 4.2 percent from January to April alone. Since the outbreak of war in Ukraine, not only has everything felt more expensive. Not every price increase is due to the Russian invasion – but these five are.

How expensive has it become? The average price of a liter of diesel has risen from 167.2 to 204.2 cents since the eve of the Russian invasion, an increase of 22.1 percent. Premium petrol climbed by 17.7 percent to 207.1 cents in the same period.

What role does the Ukraine war play in this? The rise in petrol and diesel prices is due to the rise in oil prices. A barrel of North Sea Brent has risen in price by 17.1 percent since the beginning of the war. Oil prices are rising as traders fear shortages. They have to sign futures contracts today for supplies a few months from now, taking into account that by then Russia will either voluntarily stop supplying oil or the West will impose a trade embargo on Russian oil.

The inflation rate in Germany is higher than it has been for 40 years. FOCUS Online therefore asks: your everyday life consists only of savings? You really have to spend every penny and are constantly looking for ways to make a living cheaper? We want to tell your story. Please write to us at mein-bericht@focus.de. Please briefly describe your situation to us in an e-mail and also tell us when we could contact you by phone in the next few days. Thanks very much!

What’s next? In fact, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) in April, Russia delivered a million barrels less oil per day in April. This has impacted global oil supplies, but should be easily offset by additional production in OPEC countries over the coming months. It is questionable whether the price of petrol will then drop. Oil companies rarely pass on perks. However, prices should not continue to rise so drastically.

How expensive has it become? The price of gas has increased by 74.8 percent since the outbreak of war. For German households, this has made itself felt with significant price increases. The Federal Statistical Office reported an increase of 10.4 percent from January to April.

What role does the Ukraine war play in this? Russia has the world’s largest reserves of natural gas and is the second largest producer after the United States. Europe in particular is dependent on Russian natural gas. Despite all the efforts of the federal government, this will not change anytime soon. So far, the gas has continued to flow, but Russia is already cutting off deliveries to some countries where suppliers don’t want to pay in rubles.

What’s next? Although natural gas is also required in industry, the biggest price driver is the high demand from households for heating in the colder months of the year. Accordingly, prices should at least remain stable over the summer. For the coming winter, a lot depends on how cheaply suppliers can fill the gas storage facilities. The EU is working on a way to cap gas prices for households next winter to avoid excessive costs. Germany is also expanding terminals for liquid gas on the North Sea. The USA could deliver here. However, these imports, as well as gas from the new partnership with Qatar, will not play a role until 2023 at the earliest.

How expensive has it become? The exchange electricity price in Germany fluctuates greatly throughout the day, but on average a megawatt hour is around twice as expensive as before the outbreak of war. This affects household electricity. The Federal Statistical Office reports a price increase of 7.4 percent for the period from January to April. Compared to the previous year, electricity has become around 20 percent more expensive.

What role does the Ukraine war play in this? Neither Russia nor the Ukraine supply electricity to Germany, but natural gas is an important raw material from which we generate our electricity. Natural gas made up 12 percent of our power mixes this year. In addition, there are deliveries of coal, which are also used to generate electricity. The higher raw material prices therefore have an effect on the electricity price here.

What’s next? So far, consumers have hardly reached the higher exchange electricity prices. Logically, because most of them have long-term contracts. “For consumers, the situation on the energy market will only get worse in the next one or two years before it gets better,” Felix Müsgens, Professor of Energy Economics at the BTU Cottbus, told Die Zeit. By 2024, energy suppliers will have to stock up on electricity themselves at high prices and will raise prices accordingly. Only then will the situation ease up – especially if we succeed in expanding renewable energies more quickly, which makes us less dependent on commodity prices.

How expensive has it become? According to the Federal Statistical Office, food prices in Germany rose by 5.1 percent from January to April. Certain product groups stand out, such as vegetable cooking oils (19.2 percent), butter (14 percent), pork, beef and veal (around 12 percent each).

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What role does the Ukraine war play in this? Russia and Ukraine are the two top exporters of edible vegetable oils, most notably sunflower oil. Trade with Ukraine came to a standstill as a result of the war. Russia stopped exporting sunflower oil in April. Accordingly, the supply on the world market has become scarcer, the demand has remained the same. Neither country can do anything about the rising meat prices.

What’s next? As long as there is war in Ukraine, exports, especially of food, will not return to normal levels. Russia is also likely to severely limit its food exports in order to first feed its own population despite all the sanctions. In addition, some countries have imposed export tariffs on edible oils, such as Argentina (on soybean oil) and Indonesia (on palm oil), to limit exports. Falling prices are therefore not to be expected for the time being.

How expensive has it become? The Dax has fallen by 4.3 percent since the outbreak of war, the leading US index S

What role does the Ukraine war play in this? The stock exchanges are having a lot of problems right now that are putting prices under pressure. But the Ukraine war is one of them. As shown above, it causes many commodity prices to rise, increasing costs for businesses and thus reducing profits. The high inflation is also causing the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates significantly, making equities less attractive. In addition, many companies have voluntarily ended their business in Russia or have been forced to do so due to sanctions, which is also depressing sales and profits.

What’s next? Economists in Europe and the USA have recently cut their forecasts for economic development again. The EU is expecting growth of only 2.7 percent this year, while the Ifo Institute is assuming 3.1 percent for Germany. The forecast for stock indices is also falling accordingly. Hardly any analyst believes that the Dax will recover to its previous record level of more than 16,000 points – last reached in November – by the end of the year. The German stock index is currently missing 12.5 percent. Other stock market indices are likely to weaken similarly this year.

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