Before the scheduled November 3, presidential elections in the United States remains little more than three months, and their outcome seems to be becoming more unpredictable. If a few months ago, polls clearly showed that the incumbent Republican Donald trump has no worthy opponent, that June Joseph Biden, which guaranteed the right to the presidential nomination from the Democratic party steadily ahead of him in popularity. In recent weeks the benefit of Mr. Biden reached an impressive rate of 8.6%. Although this still does not mean that in November the United States will be the new President, “Kommersant” has decided to understand the consequences of Russia’s potential victory Joseph Biden. The findings were disappointing.77-year-old Joseph Biden in popularity ahead of 74-year-old Donald trump, according to all recent polls. The gap between them is, according to various estimates, from 8% to 15%. More recently, the likelihood of such a scenario seemed minimal, since Joe Biden became the leader of the race from the Democrats largely out of despair. No other democracy has failed to consolidate a sufficient number of supporters, in the end, right to the nomination was secured the people, causing the least irritation. Besides campaign former Vice President, pre-running only for one term, in fact, is built around the idea of “back to beautiful days of the presidency of Barack Obama”, which causes the response from many voters, and not reconciled with the victory of Donald trump. The latter is largely crippled inept to counter the spread of the coronavirus — the country became the largest source of the disease — and indistinct position in relation to the movement for the rights of the black population.Read daleep the last election in the US shows that sociology is deceptive and to be sure of any victory in advance is impossible, but the “y” decided to analyze the possible pros and cons for Russia and the coming to power of Joseph Biden. He recently said that Russian President Vladimir Putin does not want to win. “I had some very Frank and direct conversations with President Putin when I was Vice President before that. I think one of the reasons, I think, he doesn’t want me to become President, he knows that there will be more such direct conversations,” said Joseph Biden.Conversations with then Vice-President in Moscow, in fact, very few people liked. According to several interlocutors of “Kommersant” in the government of the Russian Federation, the greatest annoyance was caused by the visit of Joseph Biden to Russia in March 2011. The high-ranking guest then during the meeting with Russian opposition leaders at Spaso house — the residence of the American Ambassador to Moscow openly said that Vladimir Putin should not run for a third presidential term. “I don’t know whether he is now meant by “a Frank and direct conversation,” but the Russian side this was seen as a blatant and shameless interference in the internal Affairs of our country. This does neither before nor after him, no one allowed,” said one of Kommersant’s sources. Another expressed the view that “nothing good” in Russia the election of Joseph Biden will bring. “Well, unless he start to extend, and it will be like now, but even with the ideological assaults”,— said the official.That relations with Russia it better not be, I’m sure he and Joseph Biden, at least he’s repeatedly made it clear that during the election speeches. Recently, he said that US intelligence agencies have already warned him that the Russian authorities try to intervene in the November elections, to undermine their legitimacy. According to Biden, if he becomes President, Moscow for such actions will “pay a serious price.” In addition, he promised to push for restrictions on imports of goods from China and the Russian Federation in the United States and other NATO countries, and to counteract the growing influence of Russia in Europe and other regions.Read duleepa Russian Affairs Joseph Biden for many years advises one of the most critical in relation to the Moscow experts in Washington — Michael carpenter (in the period of Vice-presidency of Mr. Biden it was his foreign policy adviser, and previously as the Deputy assistant Secretary of defense for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia). On what expertise can be expected of him, says, for example, his forecast of Russia’s actions in 2019. Michael carpenter predicted that Russia would invade into the territory of Ukraine to create a land connection with Crimea, raising the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh if the Armenian authorities do not fulfill all the conditions it will require from Belarus the creation on its territory of Russian military base, but otherwise the “Anschluss” — and seven more “predictions” in the same spirit. In 2018, Joseph Biden and Michael carpenter published in the magazine Foreign Affairs an article-Manifesto “How to resist the Kremlin.” According to the authors, Donald trump insufficiently serious about coming from Russia to the threat, allowing Moscow easily to realize their sinister plans for world domination. Seeking to occupy the Oval office, Joe Biden hopes to correct this and other mistakes of the current President.Tightening policy towards Russia waiting for Joseph Biden and many of his supporters in Washington. There is some reason called Donald trump’s “Pro-President” and a “puppet of the Kremlin”, though what he did for Moscow in fact nothing good. An illustrative example of such relations��Iya — published recently regular column contributor to The Washington Post’s Jennifer Rubin called “Joe Biden would put an end to the policy of trump, which puts Putin in the first place.””B” figured out what might be the US policy towards Russia under President Joseph Biden.Arms control: hope anticontrol over arms and non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction is perhaps the only area where Biden can be expected beneficial to Russia’s progress. First of all it concerns Russian-American Treaty on the reduction and limitation of strategic offensive arms (start Treaty), which Donald trump, apparently, just going to expire in February 2021, instead of, as proposed by Moscow, to extend it for another five years. The current head of the White house made a condition of the extension of the agreement involvement in the arms control of China. However, the prospects of multilateral agreements in this area have not yet reviewed in six months is unlikely to emerge.Joseph Biden has already promised to extend the start Treaty in the event of his election. The question is how to do it in two weeks between the date of the inauguration of the new President of the United States (it is scheduled for 20 January 2021) and the expiration of the contract (5 February). Russian officials repeatedly warned that Moscow needs time to domestic formalities related to renewal of such agreement. Anton Khlopkov and Anastasia shavrova from the Center for energy and security in the article “Russia in global politics” explain that with a maximum acceleration of all procedures, it will take a month and a half. To the contract is not repealed, the parties, according to experts, it will be necessary to quickly align the document on the extension and be sure to include a provision on provisional application.Other agreements more difficult. So, even the election of Joseph Biden will not prevent Donald Trump 22 Nov to withdraw the U.S. from the Treaty on open skies. It allows its 34 member countries, including USA and Russia, to carry out reconnaissance flights over each other’s territory with a view to strengthening transparency and mutual trust. 22 may, Donald trump announced the US withdrawal from the Treaty, justifying this decision by saying that the agreement is abusing Russia. The decision will come into force at the end of November. If Joe Biden wants to return to the United States in the Treaty, he will have to apply to the special Advisory Commission. Given the fact that among Democrats there are those who doubt the benefits of this Treaty for the United States, acting in this matter should not be expected.Just not worth it to wait for the return of the parties to the Treaty on the elimination of intermediate-range and shorter-range from which the United States went into PRoslom year. This Chapter can be considered closed, but the administration of Joseph Biden hypothetically could demonstrate a greater willingness to conclude agreements (perhaps political) of not being the appropriate weapons in different regions.With regard to non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, the headquarters of Joseph Biden made clear that he was prepared to consider the question of the return of the United States in the Iranian nuclear deal (Joint comprehensive plan of action, SVPD, which Donald trump has come out in 2018). However, it will not be easy. First, because for the remaining six months of the present administration can achieve that the deal will be nothing left. And secondly, because Iran can put forward US the terms on which they do not agree. So, in a recent interview with Kommersant, the Iranian Ambassador to Russia Kazem Jalali said, according to Tehran, Washington’s exit from the transaction cost Iran at least $200 billion, and hinted that the Americans should compensate for these losses if they want to return to the SVPD.As for the possibility of deployment of U.S. nuclear weapons in Poland along with a transfer to the part of the U.S. contingent from Germany, these plans advisors Joseph Biden have promised to revise. In General, his administration will obviously try to compensate the damage caused to the Euro-Atlantic relations by Donald trump. Joe Biden will not be an ultimate demand from European allies to increase their defense spending, threatening to leave NATO. Russia the strengthening of relations within the Alliance disadvantageous, because Donald trump recently openly admitted that the main purpose of NATO’s existence is anti — Moscow. While Alliance members are engaged in infighting, the implementation of this task leaves them with less time and effort. On the contrary, overcoming the current split is largely caused by the actions of Donald trump, Moscow does not promise anything good. This particularly concerns the Alliance’s policy in the Ukrainian direction, which in recent years has faded into the background.Sanctions: two bad scenarioand trump likes to say: despite the fact that he is accused of excessive sympathy for Russia and almost conspiring with the Kremlin, it it imposed against Moscow the most severe sanctions. This is not the case under his predecessor Democrat Barack Obama in the sanctions lists were made more Russian individuals and entities. in addition, Barack Obama made Moscow one of the most sensitive beats, arresting Russian diplomatic property in several cities in the US and deported from the country dozens of Russian diplomats. However, Donald trump is rapidly catching up with its predecessor: only last week the US imposed sanctions against the Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, has blacklisted five companies supposedly associated with the businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin, and demanded that European lenders “Nord stream-2” to withdraw from the project, threatening to impose on them restrictive measures retroactively.To expect that Joseph Biden decides to radically revise the policy in this area, not worth it. According to the programme Director, Russian Council for international Affairs Ivan Timofeev, Moscow will face one of two scenarios: either moderately negative or drastically negative. The factor of the personality of the President of the United States on the development of events in a particular scenario will influence only indirectly.”A far greater role to play the fact of holding elections. Attempts to “interference” of Russia in them is for the American establishment are already an axiom, but because the Congress may be raised the question of new sanctions against Moscow, and this does not necessarily interfere in the elections”,— said Ivan Timofeev.A moderately negative scenario, he said, is possible in the absence of a new “crisis intervention” and maintaining the status quo on key aspects of relations between the two countries. “Especially those who are the immediate reasons for sanctions. Among them the situation in Ukraine and the situation in Syria. It is also important the absence of new crises, similar to the “case Skrypalia”. In this case, even a Biden victory in itself for a sharp escalation will not,— said the expert.— Yes, Democrats have criticized trump for softness against Russia. But in fact the current administration sanctions uses widely and does not overstep the limits only where it can hurt America. Therefore, in a situation of status quo’s appearance in the oval office Biden will change little”.What, according to the forecast of Ivan Timofeev, just will not happen after the election — so it is easing sanctions and normalizing relations. At the same time he does not exclude that in certain areas may still appear narrow space. “For example, Joseph Biden may be less determined to put pressure on the European Union. Maybe he could close his eyes to the “Nord stream-2”, and the state Department to return exceptions for the project. But, most likely, Congress will be able to approve new restrictions on the “Nord stream-2″ before the election, and Donald trump they will be happy to sign”,— says the source “b”.The reason of tightening sanctions on Russia in case of victory Joseph Biden may be the traditional commitment of the presidents from the Democratic party to promote democracy, human rights and liberal values. Opponent Donald trump has already announced his intention to shortly after his victory that “the convening of a global summit for democracy, the restoration of the spirit and the common destiny of the peoples of the free world”. Among the countries that threaten the order of this event, Biden said China and Russia.Middle East: will and her otsutstvije East, the traditional arena of confrontation between the great powers and keen interest first the Soviet Union and then Russia. As explained “Kommersant” the Professor of applied analysis of international problems, MGIMO MFA of Russia Maxim Suchkov, Donald trump managed to capture the “fatigue syndrome” of America from the Middle East and convert it to the intention to rethink US involvement in the middle East region. To this end, it narrowed the number of primary American interests in the region to three: 1) the defeat of the “Islamic state” (banned in Russia); 2) containment of Iran; 3) aid to Israel to “close issue” with the Palestinians. With the first two Americans cope pretty well with the third — a little more complicated.Syrian track has exposed the fundamental dilemma of the future, positioning US in the world and the future character of American politics. According to Mr. Suchkov, the proponents of “stay in Syria,” the key to success in international relations is seen as power dominance in regional conflicts, presence on the ground. This approach, they believe, makes it impossible to win the geopolitical enemies of America, including Russia. But trompowsky the concept of “America first” implies a reduction in political and financial investments where the payback is not obvious, and the concentration of efforts and resources where the returns will come faster.”Revision of the American presence in the middle East — a bipartisan issue. In fact, this process began during the second administration of George W. Bush, gained “critical mass” when Barack Obama and was brought to the grotesque Donald trump. The administration of President Biden will continue the search for the perfect formula “sufficient involvement” of America in the middle East region, where the reduction obligations and optimize the military presence in the middle East, the United States could maintain its political influence required to implement their interests,”— said Maxim Suchkov.According to him, to this end, the team of Joseph Biden is likely to try to come back (old, new, or updated existing) a deal on Iran will make efforts to reconciliation with Turkey and its withdrawal from a partnership with Russia and “return” to the fold of Euro-Atlanticism and to look for new levers of influence on the policies of the allies, especially Saudi Arabia, but also Israel that they should not provoke new venture, which would have demanded that the US intervene actively.China: agree not dogovarivatsya changes in us-China relations Joseph Biden is not expected.Struggle with China and its growing influence Donald trump proclaiml one of the main goals of his first term: in recent months, he and members of his administration increasingly critical of China and the situation of coronavirus, and for the oppression of Muslim Uighurs, and for using Huawei for espionage. On the eve of the United States took an unprecedented step and shut down the Chinese Consulate in Houston, citing the threat to intellectual property.As reported in an interview with “Kommersant” a senior researcher of the Institute of international studies, MGIMO of the MFA of Russia Igor Denisov, in Beijing believe that the victory of Democrats are unlikely to reveal strategic opportunities for radically improving relations between the two countries — the difference in the approach to China between Donald trump and Joseph Biden is visible only at the level of personal style and at the tactical level.”The Chinese leadership believes that conflict between the two countries has been profound, affecting not only economy but also military and ideology. At the same time, they are confident that, despite the growing internal chaos and damage to global moral leadership from Washington, we cannot say that during the presidency of trump China has got a huge head start, America is finally discarded from the position of the sole superpower and that the country has finally entered into a new cold war”,— said the interlocutor of Kommersant.According to Igor Denisov, the tension Joseph Biden will subside. From an experienced politician from the establishment, prone to thoughtful and rational decisions, waiting for better predictability. Mr. Denisov believes that it is likely a truce even in such a field of confrontation, as high technology, but because of the fact that Joe Biden is not so fixated on the trade-economic sphere and the conclusion of “deals” can in General expand the agenda of cooperation.The us-centered alliances — especially if they are based on the containment of China,— Beijing will also have to give an answer. According to the sinologist, one of these answers will be the strengthening of the external economic openness, China’s attention to multilateral structures, including interactions with the United States at these sites. “Here Russia should not miss the opportunity and need to closely monitor this interaction, not pulling away from the fighting tigers, since the result may be the creation of new norms. The Chinese-Russian agenda should not over-politicize, it is necessary, reinforcing the pragmatic basis of good neighborly relations, continue to refrain from formal military Alliance”,— concluded Mr. Denisov.Senior researcher, Institute of far Eastern studies of RAS Vasily Cashin in an interview with “Kommersant” noted that the notional “return to 2016” in relations between the two countries impossible: between China and the United States took place many unpleasant in��of idental, among which the Central place is a trade war — an event which five years ago was considered unthinkable. “In addition, COVID-19 led to a sharp deterioration of relations with China in American society, making China the theme of the American domestic policy. Thus, from the administration of Joseph Biden can expect a more coordinated and predictable strategy of exerting pressure on China, in which more attention will be given to “thin” instruments of economic policy and diplomacy and fewer tariff wars and military actions”,— said Vasily Kashin.Alexey Naumov, Elena Chernenko
