Winter will change the war in Ukraine. Experts see Ukraine at an advantage. Nevertheless, US strategists advise interrupting the current offensive. But the Ukrainians don’t seem to want to listen to that.
Winter is coming to Ukraine. Many battlefields are still covered in mud and mud, but soon the frost will make the ground hard and the snow will make progress difficult. Experts largely agree that the Ukrainians will then have advantages. They have more vehicles that can continue to maneuver well in winter.
Despite this, US strategists advise the Ukrainian army to halt the current offensives. Spring is a better time to continue the counteroffensive. Researchers at the US think tank Institute for the Study of War quote the Director of National Intelligence: “The pace of the war will slow over the winter, allowing both sides to regroup and resupply.”
However, contrary to these statements, the Ukrainian army apparently wants to launch new counter-offensives in the winter. The previous successes should be expanded as quickly as possible. In addition, they want to prevent Russia from regaining the upper hand.
Spokesman for the Eastern Armed Forces Serhii Cherevatyi said recently that winter favors units with heavy vehicles and tracked vehicles. The Ukrainian troops are currently preparing such vehicles for winter operations.
Cherevatyi says Ukraine has another advantage: Russia is currently sending many new recruits to the war. These are poorly trained anyway and, above all, not prepared for the winter. The prisoners recruited by the Wagner group from Russian prisons also belonged to this group.
Deputy Defense Minister of Ukraine Volodymyr Havrylov said whoever recommended a pause in the war for Ukrainians had never “sunbathed in Crimea in January”. Accordingly, there should be further counter-offensives, especially in the direction of Crimea. Havrylov also wants to avoid a pause because it would give the Russians an opportunity to further strengthen their defenses and replenish troops.
Havrylov thus also meets the assessments of experts. The popular belief is that Ukraine should retake as much territory as possible as soon as possible. Russia is currently only able to fill the gaps in the units with poorly trained fresh recruits. Often these recruits do not survive long at the front. Russia is trying to buy time to train more recruits better and then send them into battle.
The more territory the Russians can hold, the more difficult it will be for the Ukrainians to reclaim it later.
Read here how the Russians are hiding in front of the Crimea – and what weaknesses their wall still has
